Waste Connections (WCN): Exploring Valuation After Strong Q3 Earnings Beat and Upgraded Full-Year Outlook

Waste Connections (WCN) surprised investors by beating both earnings and revenue estimates in its third quarter of 2025. The company’s E&P Waste Treatment, Recovery and Disposal division led growth with a 22% jump in revenue over last year.

See our latest analysis for Waste Connections.

Momentum for Waste Connections has shifted lately. The stock’s 1-year total shareholder return is down 7.6%, despite a strong recent quarter and improved outlook. Still, the company’s three- and five-year total returns show solid long-term growth that has attracted patient investors.

If Waste Connections’ renewed outlook has you rethinking your watchlist, this could be the perfect moment to broaden the search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With the fundamentals looking strong but shares still trading below analyst targets, the key question is whether this is a rare value opportunity for investors, or if the market has already factored in Waste Connections’ future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 15.5% Undervalued

Waste Connections is trading at $173.52, which is well below the most popular narrative’s fair value estimate of $205.36. Analysts have made bullish projections that set ambitious expectations for growth and efficiency, making this a valuation worth a closer look.

Bullish analysts recognize Waste Connections’ ongoing trend of surpassing quarterly expectations. They note that operational execution remains robust despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop.

Read the complete narrative.

Want the details that are fueling this premium fair value? The future margin profile and buyback math at the core of this narrative just might surprise you. There is a bold earnings forecast behind every number here. Dig deeper to see what is driving these headline-grabbing projections.

Result: Fair Value of $205.36 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, severe weather disruptions or setbacks in integrating new acquisitions could quickly challenge the optimistic long-term outlook for Waste Connections.

Find out about the key risks to this Waste Connections narrative.

Another View: Multiples Signal a Premium Price

While fair value estimates suggest Waste Connections might be undervalued, a closer look at its current price-to-earnings ratio tells a different story. The company trades well above both the industry average and its own fair ratio, signaling a potential valuation risk investors cannot ignore. Could the share price be getting ahead of itself, or is this premium justified by future growth?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Waste Connections Narrative

Curious to see if your perspective differs, or want to dig into the numbers firsthand? You can easily craft your own unique Waste Connections story in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Waste Connections research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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