How Investors Are Reacting To Waste Connections (WCN) Raising Full-Year Guidance on Strong E&P Segment Growth

• Waste Connections, Inc. recently reported third-quarter 2025 results that surpassed consensus earnings and revenue forecasts, highlighted by a 21.6% year-over-year revenue increase in its E&P Waste Treatment, Recovery and Disposal segment.
• A key takeaway is that upward revisions to 2025 full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA estimates reflect strengthening operational momentum across Waste Connections’ business lines.
• With the company now raising its full-year financial outlook, we’ll explore what this accelerating growth in the E&P segment could mean for Waste Connections’ investment narrative.

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Waste Connections Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Waste Connections, you need to believe that disciplined pricing, consistent acquisition activity, and operational efficiencies will drive long-term growth, even in the face of cyclical and commodity-driven business conditions. While the company's recent Q3 2025 results delivered acceleration in its E&P segment, weather-related volume risks and cost pressures remain the most important short-term catalyst and risk, respectively. The recent report doesn't materially change these factors, but it does reinforce operational momentum for now.

Among Waste Connections’ recent announcements, the 11.1% dividend increase stands out. This direct return to shareholders reflects confidence in the company’s financial position following robust segment performance, and supports the narrative that operational execution remains central to the company’s value proposition, even as acquisition integration and external risks persist.

By contrast, investors should be aware that the impact of commodity-related revenue volatility remains an area of caution...

Read the full narrative on Waste Connections (it's free!)

Waste Connections' outlook anticipates $11.3 billion in revenue and $1.7 billion in earnings by 2028. This implies a 7.1% annual revenue growth and a $1.1 billion increase in earnings from the current $643.8 million.

Uncover how Waste Connections' forecasts yield a $205.36 fair value, a 17% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Fair value estimates from two members of the Simply Wall St Community range from US$198.92 to US$205.36 per share. Opinions differ meaningfully, especially given ongoing cost pressures that could affect future margins; consider reviewing additional perspectives for a fuller view of potential outcomes.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Waste Connections - why the stock might be worth as much as 17% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Waste Connections Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Waste Connections research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Waste Connections research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Waste Connections' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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