Maximus (MMS) Is Up 6.4% After Strong Earnings, AI Expansion and New Federal Contract Wins – What's Changed

• Maximus has reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 earnings, highlighted by US$5.43 billion in annual revenue and increased profitability, alongside new federal contract wins and expanded AI initiatives.
• With the completion of a sizable buyback program and enhanced focus on technology-enabled government services, Maximus is actively positioning itself for efficiency gains and future contract opportunities.
• We'll explore how Maximus' recent Air Force contract win and AI investments may influence its long-term investment outlook.

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Maximus Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Maximus shareholder today, you'd have to believe in the sustained demand for outsourced, technology-driven government services, even as more agencies adopt automation and digital platforms in-house. The strong Q4 and full-year earnings, along with the completed buyback, reinforce stability but don't materially shift the short-term catalyst: continued federal contract awards. The biggest risk remains the potential for contract volume reductions if government budgets tighten; neither the Air Force win nor the AI expansion fully mitigate this exposure near term.

The most relevant recent announcement here is the US$150.84 million buyback completion, which reduces share count and may provide near-term EPS support. However, this financial maneuver doesn't directly address the risks from potential contract losses or changing government procurement priorities, which continue to define the short- and medium-term outlook for Maximus' growth and margin goals.

Yet, investors should also be alert to the risk of state and federal budget constraints, as even robust results may be quickly affected if...

Read the full narrative on Maximus (it's free!)

Maximus is projected to reach $6.1 billion in revenue and $486.5 million in earnings by 2028. This outlook assumes annual revenue growth of 3.9% and a $170 million increase in earnings from the current level of $316.2 million.

Uncover how Maximus' forecasts yield a $105.00 fair value, a 24% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members put fair values for Maximus between US$105 and US$154, based on two independent forecasts. While many expect accelerated government digital transformation to support the business, opinions differ widely on future contract exposure and growth potential, take a closer look at the community’s views.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Maximus - why the stock might be worth just $105.00!

Build Your Own Maximus Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Maximus research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Maximus research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Maximus' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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