Maximus (MMS): Assessing Valuation After Recent Share Price Strength

Maximus (MMS) shares have edged lower over the past month, down about 2%, even as the company continues to post steady annual revenue and profit growth. Investors are weighing these moves against strong multi-year returns.

See our latest analysis for Maximus.

Maximus’s 1-year total shareholder return sits at just under 1%, yet the 20% share price gain over the past 90 days has turned some heads after a quieter start to the year. Momentum is building as long-term holders have seen a robust 46% total return over three years, which highlights the company’s persistent ability to deliver, even when recent price moves have been muted.

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The question now is whether Maximus’s recent run leaves the stock undervalued, or if current prices already reflect most of its growth potential. This leads investors to wonder if there is still a compelling buying opportunity.

Most Popular Narrative: 17.9% Undervalued

Maximus closed at $86.21, noticeably below the most-followed narrative’s fair value estimate of $105. Analysts see further upside from here if their key underlying assumptions hold true.

Pending implementation of new federal legislation (for example, Medicaid work requirements, increased eligibility reviews, and SNAP payment integrity) is set to significantly expand state demand for Maximus' compliance and administration services starting in FY27. This positions the company for an above-trend acceleration in organic revenue growth. Elevated regulatory complexity and the growing need for technology-driven, outcome-based delivery are fueling increased spend by governments on third-party administrators like Maximus. This supports higher client retention, contract expansion, and strengthens EBITDA and net margins through scale and operational leverage.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what drives this bullish target? The most influential factors behind this valuation are bold profit margin expansion and ambitious assumptions for long-term earnings leverage. Discover which surprising projections these analysts are betting on to justify a premium price tag.

Result: Fair Value of $105 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing budget constraints and rapid technology adoption across government agencies could slow Maximus’s revenue growth and weaken the bullish outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Maximus narrative.

Build Your Own Maximus Narrative

If you have a different perspective or want to dive deeper into the numbers yourself, you can build your own narrative in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Maximus research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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