Investors Could Be Concerned With HNI's (NYSE:HNI) Returns On Capital

If we're looking to avoid a business that is in decline, what are the trends that can warn us ahead of time? A business that's potentially in decline often shows two trends, a return on capital employed (ROCE) that's declining, and a base of capital employed that's also declining. Basically the company is earning less on its investments and it is also reducing its total assets. On that note, looking into HNI (NYSE:HNI), we weren't too upbeat about how things were going.

What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. The formula for this calculation on HNI is:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.12 = US$120m ÷ (US$1.4b - US$395m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2022).

So, HNI has an ROCE of 12%. On its own, that's a standard return, however it's much better than the 9.7% generated by the Commercial Services industry.

Check out our latest analysis for HNI

Above you can see how the current ROCE for HNI compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report for HNI.

What Does the ROCE Trend For HNI Tell Us?

In terms of HNI's historical ROCE movements, the trend doesn't inspire confidence. About five years ago, returns on capital were 15%, however they're now substantially lower than that as we saw above. On top of that, it's worth noting that the amount of capital employed within the business has remained relatively steady. Since returns are falling and the business has the same amount of assets employed, this can suggest it's a mature business that hasn't had much growth in the last five years. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on HNI becoming one if things continue as they have.

What We Can Learn From HNI's ROCE

In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock. And, the stock has remained flat over the last five years, so investors don't seem too impressed either. Unless there is a shift to a more positive trajectory in these metrics, we would look elsewhere.

On a final note, we found 3 warning signs for HNI (1 is concerning) you should be aware of.

If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this free list of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.