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GFL Environmental Inc.NYSE:GFL Stock Report

Market Cap US$13.1b
Share Price
US$36.74
US$51.79
29.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
1Y-26.2%
7D-7.3%
Portfolio Value
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GFL Environmental Inc.

NYSE:GFL Stock Report

Market Cap: US$13.1b

GFL Environmental (GFL) Stock Overview

Provides non-hazardous solid waste management services in Canada and the United States. More details

GFL fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation2/6
Future Growth2/6
Past Performance2/6
Financial Health1/6
Dividends0/6

Rewards

Trading at 21.3% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 18.61% per year

Became profitable this year

Risk Analysis

Interest payments are not well covered by earnings

Large one-off items impacting financial results


GFL Community Fair Values

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GFL Environmental Inc. Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of share price highs, lows and changes for GFL Environmental
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceCA$37.19
52 Week HighCA$51.51
52 Week LowCA$36.17
Beta0.51
1 Month Change-16.52%
3 Month Change-12.54%
1 Year Change-26.24%
3 Year Change-1.80%
5 Year Change19.16%
Change since IPO121.37%

Recent News & Updates

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • Feb 14

Strategic Pivot Opens Opportunity For Investors In GFL Environmental

Summary GFL Environmental is transitioning from aggressive growth to a high-quality, pure-play solid waste compounder with significant catalysts ahead. GFL's strategic focus includes deleveraging, achieving investment-grade credit, and S&P 500 inclusion, supported by divestitures and a major share buyback. Trading at 13.6x EV/EBITDA, GFL offers a 14% discount to peers and 26% to its historical average, with strong FCF growth and improved leverage. I rate GFL a strong buy for long-term investors seeking catalyst-driven alpha and premium expansion as execution continues. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 15

GFL Environmental: EBITDA Growth Should Accelerate From Here

Summary I recommend a buy rating for GFL Environmental due to expected accelerated EBITDA growth and positive valuation revisions as leverage decreases. The sale of the Environmental Services business is a positive catalyst, expected to provide CAD6 billion post-tax, aiding in debt reduction and share buybacks. Risks include potential headwinds from commodity cost fluctuations, but overall, GFL's EBITDA growth and deleveraging efforts should align its valuation with peers. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Aug 15

GFL Environmental: Buyout Premium Fully Priced In

Summary GFL is evaluating two significant buyout offers; one for the entire company, and another only for their environmental services segment. GFL Environmental is navigating increased labor and CapEx costs. However, I believe management's decision to shed low-margin contracts is the right move. The share price jumped by 30% following reports of the buyout scenarios. I believe the current share price is likely factoring in the potential buyout premium, therefore my Hold rating. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 07

GFL Environmental: Multiple Drivers That Could Lead To FY24 EBITDA Guidance Beat

Summary GFL Environmental's stock price remains pressured despite a strong earnings report, providing an opportunity for investors to buy. The company is expected to easily beat its FY24 EBITDA guidance due to various factors, including improved repair and maintenance, higher commodity prices, and upcoming projects. GFL's ability to generate cash and deleverage its balance sheet is not fully appreciated by the market, presenting valuation upside potential. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 27

GFL Environmental: Poised For Improvement Amid Strong M&A Activity And Expanding Margins

Summary GFL Environmental is a Canadian waste management company positioned to take advantage of industry consolidation and establish local monopolies. The market is underestimating GFL's potential due to high leverage and lack of free cash flow, but the next few years will be pivotal for the company. While the debt balance is high relative to industry peers, it is manageable and should become less of an issue as management de-risks the company and underlying fundamentals improve. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 05

GFL Environmental: An Overpriced Roll Up Strategy

Summary GFL is a waste management business that has grown rapidly through acquisitions, but heavy debt accumulation raises concerns about its financial health. Increasing interest rates and tightening capital markets could leave GFL vulnerable and slow down its growth through acquisitions. GFL’s current cash flow does not provide an acceptable margin of safety over its fixed costs. The company must improve its financial health before investors consider buying shares. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Shareholder Returns

GFLUS Commercial ServicesUS Market
7D-7.3%-2.8%2.1%
1Y-26.2%-16.2%30.6%

Return vs Industry: GFL underperformed the US Commercial Services industry which returned -15.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: GFL underperformed the US Market which returned 31% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is GFL's price volatile compared to industry and market?
GFL volatility
GFL Average Weekly Movement5.2%
Commercial Services Industry Average Movement7.8%
Market Average Movement7.2%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market16.1%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market3.2%

Stable Share Price: GFL has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the US market.

Volatility Over Time: GFL's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
200715,000Patrick Dovigigflenv.com

GFL Environmental Inc. provides non-hazardous solid waste management services in Canada and the United States. It offers solid waste management services, including collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, and disposal services for municipal, residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Miami Beach, Florida.

GFL Environmental Inc. Fundamentals Summary

How do GFL Environmental's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
GFL fundamental statistics
Market capUS$13.13b
Earnings (TTM)US$154.24m
Revenue (TTM)US$4.91b
87.1x
P/E Ratio
2.7x
P/S Ratio

Is GFL overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report (TTM)
GFL income statement (TTM)
RevenueCA$6.70b
Cost of RevenueCA$5.31b
Gross ProfitCA$1.39b
Other ExpensesCA$1.18b
EarningsCA$210.60m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2026

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)0.58
Gross Margin20.71%
Net Profit Margin3.14%
Debt/Equity Ratio125.6%

How did GFL perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

0.2%
Current Dividend Yield
14%
Payout Ratio

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/07 05:34
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/07 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

GFL Environmental Inc. is covered by 28 analysts. 17 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Christopher MurrayATB Cormark
William GrippinBarclays
Moses SuttonBarclays