GFL Environmental Inc.

NYSE:GFL Stock Report

Market Cap: US$13.1b

GFL Environmental Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

GFL Environmental is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 18.6% and 7.8% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 27.8% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 5.1% in 3 years.

Key information

18.6%

Earnings growth rate

27.79%

EPS growth rate

Commercial Services earnings growth13.7%
Revenue growth rate7.8%
Future return on equity5.07%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated06 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • Feb 14

Strategic Pivot Opens Opportunity For Investors In GFL Environmental

Summary GFL Environmental is transitioning from aggressive growth to a high-quality, pure-play solid waste compounder with significant catalysts ahead. GFL's strategic focus includes deleveraging, achieving investment-grade credit, and S&P 500 inclusion, supported by divestitures and a major share buyback. Trading at 13.6x EV/EBITDA, GFL offers a 14% discount to peers and 26% to its historical average, with strong FCF growth and improved leverage. I rate GFL a strong buy for long-term investors seeking catalyst-driven alpha and premium expansion as execution continues. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 15

GFL Environmental: EBITDA Growth Should Accelerate From Here

Summary I recommend a buy rating for GFL Environmental due to expected accelerated EBITDA growth and positive valuation revisions as leverage decreases. The sale of the Environmental Services business is a positive catalyst, expected to provide CAD6 billion post-tax, aiding in debt reduction and share buybacks. Risks include potential headwinds from commodity cost fluctuations, but overall, GFL's EBITDA growth and deleveraging efforts should align its valuation with peers. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Aug 15

GFL Environmental: Buyout Premium Fully Priced In

Summary GFL is evaluating two significant buyout offers; one for the entire company, and another only for their environmental services segment. GFL Environmental is navigating increased labor and CapEx costs. However, I believe management's decision to shed low-margin contracts is the right move. The share price jumped by 30% following reports of the buyout scenarios. I believe the current share price is likely factoring in the potential buyout premium, therefore my Hold rating. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 07

GFL Environmental: Multiple Drivers That Could Lead To FY24 EBITDA Guidance Beat

Summary GFL Environmental's stock price remains pressured despite a strong earnings report, providing an opportunity for investors to buy. The company is expected to easily beat its FY24 EBITDA guidance due to various factors, including improved repair and maintenance, higher commodity prices, and upcoming projects. GFL's ability to generate cash and deleverage its balance sheet is not fully appreciated by the market, presenting valuation upside potential. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 27

GFL Environmental: Poised For Improvement Amid Strong M&A Activity And Expanding Margins

Summary GFL Environmental is a Canadian waste management company positioned to take advantage of industry consolidation and establish local monopolies. The market is underestimating GFL's potential due to high leverage and lack of free cash flow, but the next few years will be pivotal for the company. While the debt balance is high relative to industry peers, it is manageable and should become less of an issue as management de-risks the company and underlying fundamentals improve. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 05

GFL Environmental: An Overpriced Roll Up Strategy

Summary GFL is a waste management business that has grown rapidly through acquisitions, but heavy debt accumulation raises concerns about its financial health. Increasing interest rates and tightening capital markets could leave GFL vulnerable and slow down its growth through acquisitions. GFL’s current cash flow does not provide an acceptable margin of safety over its fixed costs. The company must improve its financial health before investors consider buying shares. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:GFL - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (CAD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/20288,3862771,0492,1057
12/31/20277,9441551,0081,89117
12/31/20267,355-1578521,58717
3/31/20266,700211971,310N/A
12/31/20256,6162111751,316N/A
9/30/20256,501-742261,436N/A
6/30/20256,361-1561901,392N/A
3/31/20256,267-9732391,451N/A
12/31/20246,139-9633471,540N/A
9/30/20246,450-8242691,376N/A
6/30/20246,786-846531,155N/A
3/31/20247,148-20-301,051N/A
12/31/20237,516-47-75980N/A
9/30/20237,454-130-77982N/A
6/30/20237,395-3331621,142N/A
3/31/20237,159-5432801,113N/A
12/31/20226,761-1843311,096N/A
9/30/20226,380-120218977N/A
6/30/20225,930-246219915N/A
3/31/20225,438-266142861N/A
12/31/20215,137-681251898N/A
9/30/20214,933-1,193237778N/A
6/30/20214,587-978319810N/A
3/31/20214,365-1,135306765N/A
12/31/20204,196-1,11674502N/A
9/30/20203,857-68922472N/A
6/30/20203,719-684-174297N/A
3/31/20203,557-636-238220N/A
12/31/20193,347-452N/A251N/A
9/30/20193,068-450N/A251N/A
6/30/20192,621-392N/A188N/A
3/31/20192,242-520N/A19N/A
12/31/20181,853-483N/A19N/A
12/31/20171,333-101N/A126N/A
12/31/2016934-152N/A81N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: GFL's forecast earnings growth (18.6% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: GFL's earnings (18.6% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the US market (16.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: GFL's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: GFL's revenue (7.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: GFL's revenue (7.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: GFL's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (5.1%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/07 05:34
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/07 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

GFL Environmental Inc. is covered by 28 analysts. 17 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Christopher MurrayATB Cormark
William GrippinBarclays
Moses SuttonBarclays