GEO Group (GEO) Is Down 6.7% After Record New Contracts and Lowered 2025 Guidance - What's Changed

• On November 6, 2025, GEO Group reported third quarter sales of US$682.34 million and net income of US$173.94 million, both substantially higher than a year ago, while also updating its outlook for the fourth quarter and full year 2025 with guidance below analyst expectations.
• The company highlighted securing over US$460 million in new incremental annualized revenues through new or expanded contracts, marking the largest increase in new business in its history.
• We'll examine how GEO Group’s record-setting new contract wins could influence the investment narrative amid lowered financial guidance.

Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

GEO Group Investment Narrative Recap

For GEO Group, the investment case hinges on confidence in long-term federal spending for immigration enforcement and detention, given the company's reliance on large government contracts. The recent quarterly results showcased record sales and net income, but lowered forward guidance suggests that while current momentum from new business wins is strong, near-term growth may not meet all expectations. The mismatch between robust new contract announcements and softer financial guidance may temper immediate optimism, while political volatility around detention policy remains the chief risk for shareholders.

One recent announcement drawing attention is GEO's commitment of over US$460 million in incremental annualized revenue from freshly secured or expanded contracts, the largest business win in its history. This influx aligns directly with the most important growth catalyst: new and expanded federal contracts driving top-line gains. Whether these wins can offset short-term margin pressures or volatile government policy is the question facing investors right now.

However, even with a surge in new business, investors should be aware that regulatory or legislative shifts could rapidly change...

Read the full narrative on GEO Group (it's free!)

GEO Group's narrative projects $3.8 billion in revenue and $571.5 million in earnings by 2028. This requires 15.4% yearly revenue growth and a $483.1 million increase in earnings from the current $88.4 million level.

Uncover how GEO Group's forecasts yield a $39.00 fair value, a 153% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members provided four fair value estimates for GEO Group, ranging from US$35 to US$64.15 per share. Alongside these diverse personal forecasts, risks of shifting immigration policy and federal funding remain central to the company's outlook and potential returns.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on GEO Group - why the stock might be worth over 4x more than the current price!

Build Your Own GEO Group Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your GEO Group research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free GEO Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate GEO Group's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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