GEO Group (GEO): Assessing Valuation Following Strong Q3 Earnings and Upbeat 2025 Guidance

GEO Group recently delivered big news for investors, releasing third quarter earnings that far outpaced last year’s results and updating its financial guidance for both the upcoming quarter and the full year 2025.

See our latest analysis for GEO Group.

GEO Group’s hefty earnings jump and new guidance caught investors’ attention, but the momentum hasn’t translated into the share price yet. It is still down 47.9% year-to-date and the 1-year total shareholder return sits at -48.1%. Still, investors with a longer horizon remember that the stock has returned over 45% in three years and nearly 58% in five, so it has seen both impressive runs and sharp setbacks.

If GEO Group’s turnaround has you watching for the next big mover, it could be a smart time to broaden your search and see what’s happening among fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With GEO’s stock still sitting on a steep loss for 2025 despite upbeat earnings and bullish guidance, investors are left to wonder if the stock is undervalued at these levels or if the market has already priced in the company’s growth prospects.

Most Popular Narrative: 56.9% Undervalued

GEO Group’s last close at $14.75 sits far below the most widely followed fair value estimate, which stands at $34.25. This narrative reflects how sharply the market and analysts currently diverge on GEO’s future prospects and sets the scene for a closer look at their core assumptions.

The recent surge in federal funding for immigration enforcement and detention, $171 billion for border security, $45 billion earmarked for ICE detention, and multi-year discretionary spending authority creates a multi-year runway for substantial increases in facility activations, utilization, and new contract wins, directly driving top-line revenue growth and EBITDA expansion through to at least 2029.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what ambitious projections sit behind this target? One bold assumption could dramatically reshape GEO’s earnings profile, but the full reasoning is locked inside the narrative. Which sector-wide trend is powering this optimistic view? Find out how high the bar really is for GEO to meet its expected valuation.

Result: Fair Value of $34.25 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, shifts in federal funding or policy changes could limit facility utilization and stall projected revenue growth. This poses meaningful risks to the bullish outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this GEO Group narrative.

Build Your Own GEO Group Narrative

If this story doesn’t fit your outlook, or you want to dig deeper into the numbers, you can put your own take together in just minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your GEO Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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