Genpact Limited's (NYSE:G) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 59% Above Its Share Price
- Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Genpact fair value estimate is US$72.26
- Genpact's US$45.52 share price signals that it might be 37% undervalued
- Our fair value estimate is 41% higher than Genpact's analyst price target of US$51.10
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Genpact Limited (NYSE:G) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Check out our latest analysis for Genpact
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
|Levered FCF ($, Millions)||US$495.1m||US$544.0m||US$636.0m||US$703.8m||US$760.8m||US$808.6m||US$849.1m||US$884.2m||US$915.3m||US$943.5m|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Analyst x3||Analyst x3||Analyst x1||Est @ 10.67%||Est @ 8.09%||Est @ 6.28%||Est @ 5.02%||Est @ 4.13%||Est @ 3.51%||Est @ 3.08%|
|Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.6%||US$460||US$470||US$510||US$525||US$527||US$521||US$508||US$492||US$473||US$453|
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$4.9b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.1%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.6%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$944m× (1 + 2.1%) ÷ (7.6%– 2.1%) = US$17b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$17b÷ ( 1 + 7.6%)10= US$8.3b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$13b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$45.5, the company appears quite undervalued at a 37% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Genpact as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.934. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Genpact
- Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
- Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
- Earnings declined over the past year.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Professional Services market.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
- Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
- Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Genpact, there are three further items you should further examine:
- Risks: Be aware that Genpact is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
- Future Earnings: How does G's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.
Find out whether Genpact is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.View the Free Analysis
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Genpact Limited provides business process outsourcing and information technology (IT) services in India, rest of Asia, North and Latin America, and Europe.
Very undervalued with excellent balance sheet.