Results: CoreCivic, Inc. Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

The yearly results for CoreCivic, Inc. (NYSE:CXW) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues were US$2.0b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$0.62 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 14%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for CoreCivic

Taking into account the latest results, CoreCivic's five analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$1.99b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 8.8% to US$0.68. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.01b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.81 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.

Althoughthe analysts have revised their earnings forecasts for next year, they've also lifted the consensus price target 7.7% to US$28.00, suggesting the revised estimates are not indicative of a weaker long-term future for the business. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values CoreCivic at US$32.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$25.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. From these estimates it looks as though the analysts expect the years of declining revenue to come to an end, given the flat forecast out to 2025. That would be a definite improvement, given that the past five years have seen revenue shrink 0.1% annually. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 6.8% annually. Although CoreCivic's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is still expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for CoreCivic. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple CoreCivic analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - CoreCivic has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is potentially serious) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.