A Look at CoreCivic’s (CXW) Valuation Following Its Expanded Share Buyback Program

On November 7, 2025, CoreCivic (CXW) revealed it is increasing its equity buyback plan by $200 million, raising the total authorization to $700 million. This move highlights management’s confidence and a focus on shareholder value.

See our latest analysis for CoreCivic.

CoreCivic’s expanded buyback arrives after a tough stretch, with a year-to-date share price decline of nearly 23% and a 1-year total shareholder return of -21.9%. Despite this recent pressure, its 3-year and 5-year total shareholder returns, at 37.9% and 113.8% respectively, suggest longer-term investors have been rewarded. Momentum may be shifting as management doubles down on shareholder value.

If CoreCivic’s latest buyback has you weighing where value and momentum meet, now’s the perfect time to broaden your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With CoreCivic’s fundamentals improving and the share price still trading at a meaningful discount to analyst targets, is this a genuine buying opportunity for investors, or is the market already factoring in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 43.9% Undervalued

CoreCivic’s most followed narrative points to a fair value that stands dramatically above the last close. This suggests the market may be missing important upside. With analysts’ earnings forecasts and contract catalysts in mind, investors are offered a markedly different perspective than the current price implies.

The unprecedented increase in mandatory government funding for federal detention and border security (notably, $75 billion for ICE and multi-year appropriations through 2029) is catalyzing rapid contracting activity, reactivation of idle facilities, and will significantly boost CoreCivic's recurring revenue and occupancy rates in future quarters.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what’s really fueling this undervaluation call? The narrative hinges on bolder revenue ramp-ups, higher profit margins, and future profit multiples rarely seen in this sector. Which make-or-break numbers push the target price skyward? Step inside the narrative to uncover which projections shape that headline figure.

Result: Fair Value of $29.88 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, any shift in federal detention policy or loss of major government contracts could quickly undermine CoreCivic’s growth story and dampen future returns.

Find out about the key risks to this CoreCivic narrative.

Build Your Own CoreCivic Narrative

If you have your own take on where CoreCivic’s numbers or outlook should lead, dive into the data yourself and craft a personalized case in just minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your CoreCivic research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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