BlackSky Technology (BKSY): Evaluating Valuation Following Major National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency Contract News

BlackSky Technology (NYSE:BKSY) made headlines again after landing a fresh delivery order from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency for automated change detection. This new project uses BlackSky’s satellite imaging and proprietary AI to spot shifts in natural resources, infrastructure, and military activity across millions of square kilometers. This development strengthens its position in defense and intelligence services. It is the latest in a series of government contracts that highlight BlackSky’s expanding role and capabilities, leading investors to consider questions about the stock’s long-term potential.

The shares have experienced a surge in activity connected to these high-profile partnerships, with momentum building. Over the past year, BlackSky has delivered a reported 231% total return, supported by its ongoing work on government contracts and collaborations with industry peers. Despite challenging financials and negative profitability, rapid revenue growth along with new projects such as the live Earth digital twin from Project Orbion has increased investor interest and influenced the stock’s performance during 2025.

With the latest NGA order secured, investors may now be weighing whether the market has fully recognized BlackSky’s growth story or if there could be further potential for those willing to accept the associated risks.

Most Popular Narrative: 26.5% Undervalued

The most widely followed narrative currently views BlackSky Technology as significantly undervalued, citing a fair value that is well above its latest share price. This perspective is grounded in ambitious expectations for future revenue growth, margin improvement, and industry leadership driven by technological advances.

The ramp-up of the Gen-3 satellite constellation, coupled with demonstrated high performance and lower costs, is creating strong demand and contract expansion, especially once general availability launches in Q4. This is likely to drive a step-function increase in recurring imagery and analytics revenues in 2025 and beyond.

What if you could see the assumptions analysts are making to justify a premium target? This narrative hinges on aggressive growth projections, a future industry-level margin leap, and a steep earnings multiple. Want the details behind the optimism and the big numbers they are forecasting for BlackSky’s next chapter? Learn which financial leaps of faith drive this valuation.

Result: Fair Value of $25.29 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing U.S. government budget uncertainty and the heavy capital requirements for satellite expansion could affect BlackSky’s momentum and long-term revenue visibility.

Find out about the key risks to this BlackSky Technology narrative.

Another View: Looking at the Numbers a Different Way

While some see major upside, another perspective weighs the company’s current stock price against sales figures for similar industry players. This approach suggests BlackSky might look expensive by this metric. Is market optimism outrunning the fundamentals?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Stay updated when valuation signals shift by adding BlackSky Technology to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our screener to discover other companies that fit your criteria.

Build Your Own BlackSky Technology Narrative

If you have a unique perspective or prefer to dive into the figures yourself, you can craft your own analysis in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your BlackSky Technology research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for More Smart Investment Ideas?

Don’t miss out on your next winning move. Empower your portfolio by tracking top-performing companies in dynamic growth spaces with these expert-curated alternatives:

• Spot the next big payout by focusing on steady income potential from strong businesses yielding over 3%. Check out dividend stocks with yields > 3%.
• Ride the artificial intelligence wave by targeting up-and-coming innovators revolutionizing tomorrow’s industries through AI penny stocks.
• Get ahead of value trends and seize opportunities by searching for shares trading below their fair value via undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com