The Brink's Company Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Last week, you might have seen that The Brink's Company (NYSE:BCO) released its third-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.7% to US$99.57 in the past week. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at US$0.65, some 65% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at US$1.3b. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Brink's

After the latest results, the three analysts covering Brink's are now predicting revenues of US$5.23b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 4.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 187% to US$7.77. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$5.31b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.88 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.

The consensus price target held steady at US$131, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Brink's, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$138 and the most bearish at US$123 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Brink's' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 3.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 7.6% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 7.1% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Brink's is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Brink's going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Brink's that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.