Stock Analysis

Is Verra Mobility (NASDAQ:VRRM) Using Too Much Debt?

NasdaqCM:VRRM
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Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Verra Mobility Corporation (NASDAQ:VRRM) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

View our latest analysis for Verra Mobility

What Is Verra Mobility's Net Debt?

You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Verra Mobility had US$1.04b of debt in September 2023, down from US$1.21b, one year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$118.4m, its net debt is less, at about US$920.9m.

debt-equity-history-analysis
NasdaqCM:VRRM Debt to Equity History January 16th 2024

A Look At Verra Mobility's Liabilities

The latest balance sheet data shows that Verra Mobility had liabilities of US$197.6m due within a year, and liabilities of US$1.15b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had US$118.4m in cash and US$231.8m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$1.00b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

This deficit isn't so bad because Verra Mobility is worth US$3.64b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

While Verra Mobility's debt to EBITDA ratio (2.8) suggests that it uses some debt, its interest cover is very weak, at 2.5, suggesting high leverage. So shareholders should probably be aware that interest expenses appear to have really impacted the business lately. On the other hand, Verra Mobility grew its EBIT by 20% in the last year. If it can maintain that kind of improvement, its debt load will begin to melt away like glaciers in a warming world. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Verra Mobility can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, Verra Mobility recorded free cash flow worth a fulsome 100% of its EBIT, which is stronger than we'd usually expect. That positions it well to pay down debt if desirable to do so.

Our View

The good news is that Verra Mobility's demonstrated ability to convert EBIT to free cash flow delights us like a fluffy puppy does a toddler. But the stark truth is that we are concerned by its interest cover. All these things considered, it appears that Verra Mobility can comfortably handle its current debt levels. Of course, while this leverage can enhance returns on equity, it does bring more risk, so it's worth keeping an eye on this one. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Verra Mobility (including 1 which can't be ignored) .

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Verra Mobility is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.