Harmonic Drive Systems Inc.

OTCPK:HSYD.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$1.2b

Harmonic Drive Systems Valuation

Is HSYD.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HSYD.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HSYD.F ($12.28) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($5.84)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HSYD.F is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HSYD.F?

Key metric: As HSYD.F is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for HSYD.F. This is calculated by dividing HSYD.F's market cap by their current revenue.
What is HSYD.F's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio3.4x
SalesJP¥53.59b
Market CapJP¥179.54b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does HSYD.F's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for HSYD.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2.8x
CIR CIRCOR International
1.4x4.4%US$1.1b
PRLB Proto Labs
2x3.0%US$1.0b
CMCO Columbus McKinnon
1.1x4.3%US$1.1b
ERII Energy Recovery
6.7x14.8%US$914.7m
HSYD.F Harmonic Drive Systems
3.4x10.3%US$179.5b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: HSYD.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.4x) compared to the peer average (3.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does HSYD.F's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Machinery Industry?

22 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HY Hyster-Yale
0.2x-0.6%US$993.19m
TWI Titan International
0.3x2.2%US$460.92m
PKOH Park-Ohio Holdings
0.3x3.9%US$441.47m
MTW Manitowoc Company
0.2x2.4%US$379.72m
HSYD.F 3.4xIndustry Avg. 1.7xNo. of Companies28PS01.63.24.86.48+
22 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: HSYD.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.4x) compared to the US Machinery industry average (1.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HSYD.F's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HSYD.F PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio3.4x
Fair PS Ration/a

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate HSYD.F's Price-To-Sales Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HSYD.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$12.28
US$25.85
+110.5%
30.1%US$37.30US$16.08n/a10
Nov ’25US$18.45
US$31.26
+69.4%
24.4%US$40.52US$16.88n/a10
Oct ’25n/a
US$33.11
0%
24.9%US$42.64US$17.77n/a10
Sep ’25n/a
US$32.76
0%
19.2%US$40.62US$18.96n/a10
Aug ’25n/a
US$30.96
0%
18.3%US$38.20US$17.83n/a10
Jul ’25n/a
US$30.46
0%
21.5%US$38.20US$17.83n/a9
Jun ’25n/a
US$29.80
0%
20.9%US$38.18US$19.09n/a8
May ’25n/a
US$29.36
0%
19.3%US$36.62US$19.28n/a8
Apr ’25n/a
US$31.17
0%
17.7%US$38.76US$20.40n/a9
Mar ’25n/a
US$30.87
0%
17.1%US$37.83US$19.91n/a10
Feb ’25n/a
US$32.98
0%
17.7%US$39.89US$20.63n/a10
Jan ’25US$29.50
US$33.45
+13.4%
14.8%US$39.49US$20.43n/a10
Dec ’24n/a
US$32.60
0%
14.8%US$38.80US$20.07n/a10
Nov ’24n/a
US$32.31
0%
16.3%US$39.45US$20.06US$18.4510
Oct ’24n/a
US$33.12
0%
13.9%US$40.01US$23.74n/a10
Sep ’24n/a
US$32.35
0%
19.7%US$40.35US$18.46n/a11
Aug ’24n/a
US$35.36
0%
19.7%US$43.27US$19.15n/a11
Jul ’24n/a
US$35.34
0%
19.0%US$42.51US$18.81n/a13
Jun ’24n/a
US$34.94
0%
23.1%US$44.02US$19.41n/a14
May ’24n/a
US$36.11
0%
23.1%US$45.69US$20.15n/a14
Apr ’24n/a
US$36.52
0%
23.8%US$46.41US$20.47n/a14
Mar ’24US$36.35
US$36.35
-0.006%
21.0%US$45.43US$20.11n/a14
Feb ’24n/a
US$35.95
0%
24.4%US$52.03US$23.41n/a13
Jan ’24n/a
US$35.03
0%
24.8%US$51.61US$23.23US$29.5012
Dec ’23n/a
US$35.03
0%
23.5%US$48.50US$21.83n/a12
Nov ’23n/a
US$34.69
0%
22.1%US$47.08US$22.15n/a12

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

Doman Building Materials Group

CA$836.2m

Through its subsidiaries, engages in the wholesale distribution of building materials and home renovation products in the United States and Canada.

CWXZ.F

CA$6.99

7D

5.7%

1Y

42.3%

Iveco Group

€2.5b

Engages in the design, production, marketing, sale, servicing, and financing of trucks, commercial vehicles, buses and specialty vehicles for firefighting, defense, and other applications worldwide.

IVCG.F

€9.80

7D

-2.4%

1Y

25.5%

CK Hutchison Holdings

HK$152.4b

An investment holding company, primarily operates in ports and related services, retail, infrastructure, and telecommunications businesses in Hong Kong and internationally.

CKHU.F

HK$5.32

7D

0.5%

1Y

3.3%