Harmonic Drive Systems Inc.

OTCPK:HSYD.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$2.6b

Harmonic Drive Systems Valuation

Is HSYD.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of HSYD.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: HSYD.F ($27.15) is trading above our estimate of future cash flow value ($12.84)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: HSYD.F is trading above our estimate of future cash flow value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HSYD.F?

Key metric: As HSYD.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HSYD.F. This is calculated by dividing HSYD.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HSYD.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio89.6x
EarningsJP¥4.60b
Market CapJP¥411.80b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HSYD.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HSYD.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average29.4x
WOR Worthington Enterprises
23.7x15.75%US$2.7b
HLIO Helios Technologies
46.1x22.60%US$2.4b
KMT Kennametal
26.3x20.81%US$3.0b
EPAC Enerpac Tool Group
21.3x15.77%US$1.9b
HSYD.F Harmonic Drive Systems
89.6x28.01%US$411.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HSYD.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (89.6x) compared to the peer average (29.4x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HSYD.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Machinery Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
WNC Wabash National
1.7x-71.26%US$379.08m
FATH Fathom Digital Manufacturing
2.6xn/aUS$35.24m
GTEC Greenland Technologies Holding
3.5xn/aUS$17.53m
No more companies available in this PE range
HSYD.F 89.6xIndustry Avg. 27.1xNo. of Companies18PE01632486480+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HSYD.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (89.6x) compared to the US Machinery industry average (27.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HSYD.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HSYD.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio89.6x
Fair PE Ratio65.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HSYD.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (89.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (65.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HSYD.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$27.15
US$27.84
+2.55%
23.04%US$38.43US$18.27n/a11
Apr ’27US$21.15
US$27.84
+31.65%
23.04%US$38.43US$18.27n/a11
Mar ’27US$29.40
US$25.17
-14.38%
21.75%US$34.52US$18.54n/a11
Feb ’27US$22.85
US$24.25
+6.13%
24.16%US$34.89US$16.80n/a11
Jan ’27US$25.23
US$23.60
-6.44%
23.84%US$32.30US$16.80n/a11
Dec ’26US$17.92
US$23.69
+32.18%
24.89%US$31.88US$15.30n/a11
Nov ’26US$19.00
US$24.11
+26.90%
24.91%US$32.45US$15.58n/a11
Oct ’26US$18.49
US$24.82
+34.23%
23.45%US$33.99US$16.32n/a11
Sep ’26US$17.00
US$24.99
+47.00%
22.91%US$33.97US$16.31n/a11
Aug ’26US$19.30
US$26.31
+36.34%
22.89%US$37.14US$19.23n/a9
Jul ’26US$19.38
US$27.48
+41.84%
22.45%US$38.95US$20.17n/a10
Jun ’26US$22.60
US$27.45
+21.48%
22.56%US$38.92US$19.46n/a10
May ’26n/a
US$28.18
0%
23.17%US$38.98US$19.49n/a10
Apr ’26US$22.78
US$26.80
+17.66%
29.49%US$38.68US$16.67US$21.1510
Mar ’26US$31.10
US$26.25
-15.59%
29.00%US$38.08US$16.41US$29.4010
Feb ’26US$30.00
US$23.40
-21.99%
27.49%US$33.64US$16.17US$22.8510
Jan ’26n/a
US$23.38
0%
28.61%US$33.22US$16.61US$25.2310
Dec ’25US$12.70
US$25.08
+97.45%
31.71%US$38.39US$16.55US$17.9210
Nov ’25US$18.45
US$31.22
+69.19%
24.39%US$40.46US$16.86US$19.0010
Oct ’25n/a
US$32.18
0%
24.92%US$41.45US$17.27US$18.4910
Sep ’25n/a
US$33.10
0%
19.19%US$41.04US$19.15US$17.0010
Aug ’25n/a
US$30.96
0%
18.26%US$38.20US$17.83US$19.3010
Jul ’25n/a
US$30.33
0%
21.49%US$38.04US$17.75US$19.389
Jun ’25n/a
US$29.80
0%
20.88%US$38.18US$19.09US$22.608
May ’25n/a
US$28.98
0%
19.27%US$36.14US$19.02n/a8
Apr ’25n/a
US$30.22
0%
17.69%US$37.58US$19.78US$22.789
US$27.58
Fair Value
1.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
11
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/04/15 04:55
End of Day Share Price 2026/04/15 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. is covered by 17 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Jay HuangBernstein
Takahiro InoueCitigroup Inc
Xiaolu ZhengDeutsche Bank