Wabash National Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Last week, you might have seen that Wabash National Corporation (NYSE:WNC) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.0% to US$24.61 in the past week. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at US$515m, although statutory earnings per share came in 16% below what the analysts expected, at US$0.39 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Wabash National after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Wabash National

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the three analysts covering Wabash National, is for revenues of US$2.26b in 2024. This implies a small 7.1% reduction in Wabash National's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dive 50% to US$2.20 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.26b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.22 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The consensus price target rose 7.8% to US$27.67despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of Wabash National's earnings by assigning a price premium. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Wabash National at US$30.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$25.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 9.3% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 4.5% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.5% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Wabash National is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Wabash National's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Wabash National going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Wabash National (1 is potentially serious!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.