Is There Still Opportunity in Tutor Perini After 180% Price Surge in 2025?

If you have been debating what to do with Tutor Perini stock lately, you are not alone. With an eye-popping year-to-date gain of 180.1% and a whopping 865.3% return over the last three years, Tutor Perini has been on a rollercoaster ride to remember. This kind of performance gets everyone's attention, especially when the broader market has been anything but predictable.

In recent months, the stock’s upward momentum was fueled by a combination of fresh contract wins and optimism surrounding long-term infrastructure initiatives. Headlines pointing to new project announcements and progress on legacy work have played a part in shifting risk perceptions and rekindling investor interest. After a modest climb of 5.4% over the last seven days and a steadier 1.7% gain across the month, Tutor Perini appears to be attracting both short-term traders and long-term believers.

But is the market getting ahead of itself, or could there still be more upside lurking beneath the headlines? That is where valuation comes into play. Based on a composite of six valuation checks, Tutor Perini scores a 5, meaning it is considered undervalued in five out of six approaches. That is a rare mark of quality, but a number by itself does not tell the whole story. Let us dig into what those valuation scores really mean, and why some analysts believe there is an even better way to think about the company’s worth.

Tutor Perini delivered 156.5% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Construction industry.

Approach 1: Tutor Perini Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company's intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them back to today’s dollars. This approach offers a forward-looking view, asking what Tutor Perini should be worth based on what it is expected to actually generate in cash over time.

Tutor Perini’s most recent reported Free Cash Flow stands at $571 million. Analyst projections show this figure is forecast to be around $500 million by the end of 2026, with subsequent years modeled to gently decline or stabilize, resulting in a projected Free Cash Flow of around $549.9 million in 2035. These projections are built using a two-stage method, starting with analyst estimates for several years and then extrapolating the trend further out.

When these projected cash flows are all discounted back to the present at an appropriate rate, the resulting intrinsic value is calculated at $150.68 per share. Compared to the current market price, this valuation suggests Tutor Perini is trading at a 55.1 percent discount to its estimated fair value, marking it as significantly undervalued according to this model.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Tutor Perini.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Tutor Perini is undervalued by 55.1%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover more undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Tutor Perini Price vs Sales

The Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio is often favored for companies where profits may fluctuate, but revenues remain a stable measure of scale and demand. For construction firms like Tutor Perini, prioritizing sales-based multiples makes sense because industry margins can vary significantly from year to year. Sales provide a reliable basis for comparison.

Growth prospects and company-specific risks play a key role in what is considered a fair P/S ratio. Rapidly growing companies or those with lower risk profiles typically command higher multiples, while mature or riskier businesses may see theirs compress.

Tutor Perini’s current P/S ratio sits at 0.75x, which is notably lower than both the construction industry average of 1.38x and the peer group average of 1.30x. This suggests the market is applying a discount to Tutor Perini's sales relative to its industry counterparts. However, Simply Wall St’s proprietary Fair Ratio for Tutor Perini is 1.04x, reflecting expected growth, profit margins, overall risk, and market cap. This provides a more nuanced perspective than a simple industry or peer comparison.

The Fair Ratio approach stands out because it considers the fuller picture, not just headline numbers. Factors like future earnings potential, risk, and competitive position help to determine what a stock’s multiple should reasonably be. When Tutor Perini’s actual P/S of 0.75x is compared to its Fair Ratio of 1.04x, the stock appears undervalued on this metric.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Tutor Perini Narrative

Earlier we mentioned there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a smarter and more dynamic way to invest that goes beyond just crunching numbers.

A Narrative is your personal investment story, blending your unique perspective with the company’s future. You combine your outlook on Tutor Perini’s risks and opportunities, your forecasts for its future revenue, profit and margins, and your estimate of fair value, all grounded in what you believe could actually happen.

Narratives make investing more approachable by connecting the story behind a company to its projected financials and estimated value. They then automatically compare your fair value to the current share price, helping you clarify exactly when you might buy, hold, or sell.

Best of all, you can easily create, customize, and share Narratives alongside thousands of other investors directly on Simply Wall St’s Community page. Your view is always updated as soon as new news or earnings are released, so your investment decisions stay relevant as the facts change.

For example, recent Narratives for Tutor Perini reflect a wide range of perspectives. Some investors see long-term upside supported by a $90.00 fair value, while others are more cautious and estimate just $67.00. Your view can and should be part of this evolving story.

Do you think there's more to the story for Tutor Perini? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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