Stock Analysis

Timken's (NYSE:TKR) Returns On Capital Are Heading Higher

NYSE:TKR
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Did you know there are some financial metrics that can provide clues of a potential multi-bagger? One common approach is to try and find a company with returns on capital employed (ROCE) that are increasing, in conjunction with a growing amount of capital employed. Basically this means that a company has profitable initiatives that it can continue to reinvest in, which is a trait of a compounding machine. So when we looked at Timken (NYSE:TKR) and its trend of ROCE, we really liked what we saw.

What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Timken:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.14 = US$659m ÷ (US$5.8b - US$1.0b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2022).

So, Timken has an ROCE of 14%. In absolute terms, that's a pretty normal return, and it's somewhat close to the Machinery industry average of 12%.

Check out our latest analysis for Timken

roce
NYSE:TKR Return on Capital Employed April 9th 2023

Above you can see how the current ROCE for Timken compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Timken here for free.

SWOT Analysis for Timken

Strength
  • Earnings growth over the past year exceeded its 5-year average.
  • Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
  • Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Weakness
  • Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Machinery industry.
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Machinery market.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 2 years.
  • Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.

How Are Returns Trending?

The trends we've noticed at Timken are quite reassuring. Over the last five years, returns on capital employed have risen substantially to 14%. The amount of capital employed has increased too, by 74%. So we're very much inspired by what we're seeing at Timken thanks to its ability to profitably reinvest capital.

The Key Takeaway

In summary, it's great to see that Timken can compound returns by consistently reinvesting capital at increasing rates of return, because these are some of the key ingredients of those highly sought after multi-baggers. And investors seem to expect more of this going forward, since the stock has rewarded shareholders with a 77% return over the last five years. Therefore, we think it would be worth your time to check if these trends are going to continue.

One more thing to note, we've identified 2 warning signs with Timken and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Timken might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.