Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (NYSE:SQM) After Its First-Quarter Report

Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (NYSE:SQM) missed earnings with its latest first-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Revenues missed expectations somewhat, coming in at US$1.1b, but statutory earnings fell catastrophically short, with a loss of US$3.04 some 93% larger than what the analysts had predicted. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 16 analysts covering Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile is for revenues of US$5.32b in 2024. This implies a chunky 15% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 250% to US$4.81. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$5.28b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.13 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at US$66.53, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile analyst has a price target of US$95.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$45.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 20% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 39% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 8.0% per year. It's pretty clear that Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile (1 is a bit concerning) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.