A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of NuScale Power Corporation (NYSE:SMR)

Key Insights

• NuScale Power's estimated fair value is US$19.19 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• NuScale Power's US$21.82 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
• Analyst price target for SMR is US$18.42 which is 4.0% below our fair value estimate

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of NuScale Power Corporation (NYSE:SMR) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for NuScale Power

The Method

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	-US$86.6m	-US$52.6m	US$19.0m	US$66.0m	US$110.2m	US$162.6m	US$218.1m	US$271.8m	US$320.9m	US$364.0m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x4	Analyst x3	Analyst x4	Analyst x2	Est @ 66.89%	Est @ 47.61%	Est @ 34.11%	Est @ 24.67%	Est @ 18.05%	Est @ 13.42%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.2%	-US$80.8	-US$45.8	US$15.4	US$50.1	US$78.0	US$107	US$134	US$156	US$172	US$182

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$770m

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.6%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$364m× (1 + 2.6%) ÷ (7.2%– 2.6%) = US$8.2b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$8.2b÷ ( 1 + 7.2%)¹⁰= US$4.1b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$4.9b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$21.8, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

The Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at NuScale Power as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.100. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for NuScale Power

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For NuScale Power, there are three essential aspects you should explore:

1. Risks: To that end, you should learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with NuScale Power (including 1 which is potentially serious) .
2. Future Earnings: How does SMR's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.