These Analysts Think Redwire Corporation's (NYSE:RDW) Sales Are Under Threat

Market forces rained on the parade of Redwire Corporation (NYSE:RDW) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded their forecasts for next year. This report focused on revenue estimates, and it looks as though the consensus view of the business has become substantially more conservative.

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Following the downgrade, the latest consensus from Redwire's nine analysts is for revenues of US$517m in 2026, which would reflect a major 74% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Prior to the latest estimates, the analysts were forecasting revenues of US$589m in 2026. The consensus view seems to have become more pessimistic on Redwire, noting the measurable cut to revenue estimates in this update.

See our latest analysis for Redwire

The consensus price target fell 21% to US$14.00, with the analysts clearly less optimistic about Redwire's valuation following this update.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Redwire's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 56% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 27% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 8.4% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Redwire is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their revenue estimates for next year. The analysts also expect revenues to grow faster than the wider market. Furthermore, there was a cut to the price target, suggesting that the latest news has led to more pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on Redwire after today.

After a downgrade like this, it's pretty clear that previous forecasts were too optimistic. What's more, we've spotted several possible issues with Redwire's business, like major dilution from new stock issuance in the past year. Learn more, and discover the 2 other warning signs we've identified, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.