Redwire Stock After New Government Partnerships Is There an Opportunity in 2025?

• If you have ever wondered whether now is the right time to dive into Redwire stock, you are not alone. We are about to break it all down for you.
• Redwire’s recent performance has been a rollercoaster, climbing 2.7% in the past week but still down 12.1% over the past month, and sitting at -53.9% year-to-date despite an impressive 195.1% three-year return.
• Recent headlines highlight Redwire's ongoing expansion within the space infrastructure sector, including high-profile partnership announcements and contract wins with government agencies. These developments have captured investor attention and may have influenced the latest price swings. Innovative projects and industry collaborations are positioning the company at the forefront of the industry conversation.
• Looking at the numbers, Redwire scores a 2 out of 6 on our value assessment, suggesting there are both challenges and opportunities ahead. We will dig into what this means using several valuation approaches, and at the end, reveal a perspective on value that might surprise even seasoned investors.

Redwire scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Redwire Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company’s true value by projecting future cash flows and discounting them back to today’s value. For Redwire, this analysis begins with its current Free Cash Flow (FCF), which stands at $-154.1 million. Although negative now, projections anticipate strong improvement ahead.

Analysts forecast that Redwire’s FCF will turn positive within a few years. Projections reach $45.8 million by 2026 and $73.1 million by 2027. Beyond that, cash flows are expected to accelerate further, with estimates reaching almost $202.1 million by 2035, according to extrapolated models. These figures are all in $ and reflect Redwire’s anticipated growth as new contracts and industry partnerships transform its financial profile.

Based on these projections, the DCF model estimates Redwire’s intrinsic value at $16.63 per share. The current share price reflects a 52.8% discount to this value, which suggests the stock is significantly undervalued at present. Investors looking for substantial upside may find this a compelling entry point.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Redwire is undervalued by 52.8%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 848 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Redwire.

Approach 2: Redwire Price vs Sales

For companies like Redwire that are not yet profitable, the Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio is often the most suitable valuation metric. This is because it allows investors to assess the value the market is placing on every dollar of the company’s revenue, regardless of current earnings. In high-growth industries, investors are willing to pay higher multiples, reflecting optimism about future sales expansion and potential profitability. However, these multiples also incorporate the risks involved in achieving those projections.

Redwire currently trades at a P/S ratio of 5.0x. For perspective, the average P/S ratio for the Aerospace & Defense industry is 3.1x, and the peer average is around 1.8x. This means Redwire’s shares are valued at a premium relative to both its direct competitors and the broader industry. This likely reflects confidence in the company’s ambitious growth plans and unique positioning.

This is where Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio” metric comes in. Rather than just benchmarking Redwire against industry or peer averages, the Fair Ratio of 2.4x takes into account the company’s growth forecasts, risk profile, profit margins, market cap, and its broader industry context. This gives a more nuanced picture of what a reasonable valuation multiple should be for a company in Redwire’s specific situation.

Comparing Redwire’s current 5.0x P/S ratio with its Fair Ratio of 2.4x shows that the stock appears overvalued on this basis. The premium pricing suggests investors are pricing in a best-case scenario for future growth.

Result: OVERVALUED

PS ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1382 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Redwire Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let us introduce you to Narratives. Narratives are stories you create behind the numbers, connecting your personal perspective on where Redwire is headed, your assumptions around fair value, and forecasts for revenue, earnings, and margins. Instead of relying solely on rigid models, Narratives invite you to link Redwire’s business drivers, news, and strategic moves directly to a financial outlook and share price target.

Narratives make it easy for anyone, from new investors to professionals, to share their view of a company’s story and then see how it plays out versus others in the Community, right in the Simply Wall St platform. This tool helps you decide when to buy or sell by showing how your Fair Value estimate compares to the actual market price. It is continuously updated as new information, such as earnings releases or major news, enters the picture.

For example, with Redwire, one investor’s Narrative might expect rapid diversification and successful new products, aligning with an optimistic price target of $28.00. Another may see ongoing contract and profitability risks, resulting in a more cautious target of $10.00. Narratives help you visualize, adjust, and compare your reasoning in real time, making investment decisions smarter and more transparent.

Do you think there's more to the story for Redwire? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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