Mueller Water Products (MWA): Evaluating Valuation After Strong Quarter and Cautious 2026 Guidance

Mueller Water Products (MWA) just delivered quarterly results that topped forecasts, with sales and EBITDA beating expectations and revenue climbing well ahead of estimates. Despite this, guidance for 2026 signaled a more cautious tone as the company prepares for shifting market conditions, particularly in residential construction.

See our latest analysis for Mueller Water Products.

The stock’s momentum has cooled lately, despite a stellar quarter and ongoing buyback activity. Investors seem to be weighing the upbeat revenue surprise and capital investments against downbeat guidance for 2026. Even with a recent 6.98% dip in the 1-month share price return, the long-term view stays positive. Mueller Water Products has handed shareholders a total return of over 110% in the past five years, making recent pullbacks look more like a pause than a reversal of fortunes.

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With a sharp run-up over the last five years, but a softer one-year return and a more cautious outlook for 2026, the question remains: is Mueller Water Products stock being overly discounted now, or is the market correctly factoring in what comes next?

Most Popular Narrative: 14.2% Undervalued

With the current fair value estimate at $27.67 per share and the last close at $23.73, the most widely followed narrative sees upside from here. This sets the stage for a closer look at the assumptions that drive the narrative and its fair value estimate.

Ongoing and future price increases, alongside persistent inflation and successful tariff offset strategies, are likely to result in continued gross margin improvement and positive net margin impact, even in the face of short-term headwinds from supply chain and currency volatility.

Read the complete narrative.

What is powering this fair value? It is all about margin gains and pricing power, but that is just the start. Want to know which surprising growth levers and profitability targets are embedded in these projections? Go deeper for the specifics behind the numbers analysts believe justify Mueller’s premium valuation.

Result: Fair Value of $27.67 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, delays in federal infrastructure funding or persistent weakness in residential construction could quickly challenge the positive outlook for Mueller Water Products.

Find out about the key risks to this Mueller Water Products narrative.

Build Your Own Mueller Water Products Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig into the data on your own terms, you can build a fresh perspective in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Mueller Water Products research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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