We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Mueller Water Products Valuation

Is MWA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MWA?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

MWA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.7x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA11.4x
PEG Ratio1.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MWA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MWA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average21.3x
KAI Kadant
18.6x-4.7%US$2.2b
SXI Standex International
19.7x16.9%US$1.3b
HLIO Helios Technologies
17.4x5.2%US$1.8b
ESE ESCO Technologies
29.7x13.7%US$2.4b
MWA Mueller Water Products
23.6x16.3%US$1.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MWA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.6x) compared to the peer average (21.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MWA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Machinery Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a11.2%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MWA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.6x) compared to the US Machinery industry average (21.5x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MWA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MWA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio23.6x
Fair PE Ratio17.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MWA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MWA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MWA ($11.59) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($11.9)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MWA is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MWA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$11.59
US$12.33
+6.4%
15.3%US$16.00US$10.00n/a9
Nov ’23US$11.75
US$11.88
+1.1%
17.6%US$17.00US$10.00n/a8
Oct ’23US$10.27
US$12.50
+21.7%
16.0%US$17.00US$10.00n/a8
Sep ’23US$11.21
US$12.75
+13.7%
15.1%US$17.00US$10.00n/a8
Aug ’23US$13.01
US$13.36
+2.7%
13.1%US$17.00US$11.00n/a7
Jul ’23US$11.74
US$13.93
+18.6%
10.2%US$17.00US$12.00n/a7
Jun ’23US$12.01
US$14.21
+18.4%
9.9%US$17.00US$12.00n/a7
May ’23US$12.03
US$14.71
+22.3%
11.3%US$18.00US$12.00n/a7
Apr ’23US$12.95
US$15.50
+19.7%
14.1%US$20.00US$13.00n/a8
Mar ’23US$12.20
US$15.50
+27.0%
14.1%US$20.00US$13.00n/a8
Feb ’23US$12.88
US$16.50
+28.1%
10.1%US$20.00US$15.00n/a8
Jan ’23US$14.40
US$16.75
+16.3%
9.3%US$20.00US$15.00n/a8
Dec ’22US$13.55
US$16.75
+23.6%
9.3%US$20.00US$15.00n/a8
Nov ’22US$16.56
US$17.11
+3.3%
8.5%US$20.00US$15.00US$11.759
Oct ’22US$15.30
US$17.11
+11.8%
8.9%US$20.00US$15.00US$10.279
Sep ’22US$16.48
US$16.89
+2.5%
10.2%US$20.00US$14.00US$11.219
Aug ’22US$14.82
US$15.33
+3.5%
7.5%US$17.00US$14.00US$13.019
Jul ’22US$14.82
US$15.22
+2.7%
8.1%US$17.00US$14.00US$11.749
Jun ’22US$14.62
US$15.22
+4.1%
8.1%US$17.00US$14.00US$12.019
May ’22US$14.36
US$14.06
-2.1%
9.6%US$16.00US$12.00US$12.039
Apr ’22US$14.16
US$13.83
-2.3%
8.3%US$16.00US$12.00US$12.959
Mar ’22US$13.25
US$13.50
+1.9%
8.9%US$16.00US$12.00US$12.209
Feb ’22US$12.08
US$13.06
+8.1%
10.3%US$16.00US$11.50US$12.889
Jan ’22US$12.38
US$12.31
-0.5%
12.3%US$14.00US$9.00US$14.408
Dec ’21US$11.84
US$12.31
+4.0%
12.3%US$14.00US$9.00US$13.558
Nov ’21US$10.36
US$11.75
+13.4%
14.6%US$14.00US$9.00US$16.568

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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