MRC Global (NYSE:MRC) Is Posting Promising Earnings But The Good News Doesn’t Stop There

MRC Global Inc. (NYSE:MRC) announced a healthy earnings result recently, and the market rewarded it with a strong uplift in the stock price. According to our analysis of the report, the strong headline profit numbers are supported by strong earnings fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for MRC Global

Examining Cashflow Against MRC Global's Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

MRC Global has an accrual ratio of -0.15 for the year to March 2024. That implies it has very good cash conversion, and that its earnings in the last year actually significantly understate its free cash flow. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of US$231m, well over the US$75.0m it reported in profit. Notably, MRC Global had negative free cash flow last year, so the US$231m it produced this year was a welcome improvement.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On MRC Global's Profit Performance

As we discussed above, MRC Global has perfectly satisfactory free cash flow relative to profit. Based on this observation, we consider it likely that MRC Global's statutory profit actually understates its earnings potential! And on top of that, its earnings per share increased by 7.8% in the last year. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. Every company has risks, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for MRC Global you should know about.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of MRC Global's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.