Mueller Industries (NYSE:MLI) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of MLI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

MLI ($54.02) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($245.69)

MLI fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	6/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	5/6

MLI Stock Overview

Mueller Industries, Inc. manufactures and sells copper, brass, aluminum, and plastic products in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, South Korea, the Middle East, China, and Mexico.

Rewards

Trading at 78% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings grew by 231.9% over the past year

Pays a reliable dividend of 1.85%

Risk Analysis

Significant insider selling over the past 3 months

Mueller Industries Competitors

Hillenbrand

NYSE:HI

US$3.0b

Franklin Electric

NasdaqGS:FELE

US$3.4b

Helios Technologies

NYSE:HLIO

US$2.2b

Gates Industrial

NYSE:GTES

US$3.2b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Mueller Industries
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$54.02
52 Week High	US$63.07
52 Week Low	US$39.00
Beta	1.1
1 Month Change	-0.73%
3 Month Change	-7.44%
1 Year Change	25.54%
3 Year Change	82.99%
5 Year Change	74.09%
Change since IPO	3,741.42%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 26

Mueller Industries (NYSE:MLI) Has A Rock Solid Balance Sheet

Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company...

Jun 13

Mueller Industries: Prudent And Balanced Growth At A Reasonable Price

Mueller Industries benefitted from rising prices of copper and increased construction activity in 2021 and so far in 2022 despite headwinds. Recent acquisitions and disciplined capital allocation support future growth and stockholder returns in the form of share buybacks and a 92% increase in the quarterly dividend. The company's balance sheet is strong and supports continued growth as confidence in construction activities remains positive.

May 15

Do Mueller Industries's (NYSE:MLI) Earnings Warrant Your Attention?

It's only natural that many investors, especially those who are new to the game, prefer to buy shares in 'sexy' stocks...

Shareholder Returns

	MLI	US Machinery	US Market
7D	6.2%	1.8%	6.3%
1Y	25.5%	-19.8%	-18.8%

Return vs Industry: MLI exceeded the US Machinery industry which returned -20.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: MLI exceeded the US Market which returned -18.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is MLI's price volatile compared to industry and market?
MLI volatility
MLI Average Weekly Movement	5.6%
Machinery Industry Average Movement	6.0%
Market Average Movement	8.1%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.7%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: MLI is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: MLI's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1917	5,337	Greg Christopher	https://www.muellerindustries.com

Mueller Industries, Inc. manufactures and sells copper, brass, aluminum, and plastic products in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, South Korea, the Middle East, China, and Mexico. It operates through three segments: Piping Systems, Industrial Metals, and Climate. The Piping Systems segment offers copper tubes, fittings, line sets, and pipe nipples; PEX plumbing and radiant systems; and plumbing-related fittings and plastic injection tooling.

Mueller Industries Fundamentals Summary

How do Mueller Industries's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
MLI fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$3.07b
Earnings (TTM)	US$563.73m
Revenue (TTM)	US$3.96b

5.5x

P/E Ratio

0.8x

P/S Ratio

Is MLI overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
MLI income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$3.96b
Cost of Revenue	US$3.02b
Gross Profit	US$946.12m
Other Expenses	US$382.39m
Earnings	US$563.73m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 26, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	9.91
Gross Margin	23.88%
Net Profit Margin	14.23%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0.1%

How did MLI perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

1.9%

Current Dividend Yield

6%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is MLI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MLI?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for MLI. This is calculated by dividing MLI's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is MLI's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	US$3.07b

MLI key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	3.9x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MLI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

MLI PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for MLI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	17.1x
HI Hillenbrand	15.3x	15.7%	US$3.0b
FELE Franklin Electric	21.8x	10.3%	US$3.4b
HLIO Helios Technologies	19.1x	13.0%	US$2.2b
GTES Gates Industrial	12.1x	4.4%	US$3.2b
MLI Mueller Industries	5.5x	n/a	US$3.1b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MLI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.5x) compared to the peer average (17.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MLI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Machinery Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MLI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.5x) compared to the US Machinery industry average (21.7x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MLI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MLI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	5.5x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate MLI's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MLI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MLI ($54.02) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($245.69)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MLI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate MLI's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.

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Future Growth

How is Mueller Industries forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 0 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

13.0%

Forecasted Capital Goods industry annual growth in earnings

In this section we usually present revenue and earnings growth projections based on the consensus estimates of professional analysts to help investors understand the company’s ability to generate profit. But as Mueller Industries has not provided enough past data and has no analyst forecast, its future earnings cannot be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst predictions.

This is quite a rare situation as 97% of companies covered by SimplyWall St do have past financial data.

Discover growth companies

Examine whether Mueller Industries is trading at an attractive price based on how much it is expected to earn in the future, and relative to its industry peers and the wider market.
Mueller Industries competitive advantages and company strategy can generally be found in its financial reports archived here.

Past Performance

How has Mueller Industries performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

6/6

Past Performance Score 6/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

39.3%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: MLI has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: MLI's current net profit margins (14.2%) are higher than last year (6.5%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: MLI's earnings have grown significantly by 39.3% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: MLI's earnings growth over the past year (231.9%) exceeds its 5-year average (39.3% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: MLI earnings growth over the past year (231.9%) exceeded the Machinery industry 24%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: MLI's Return on Equity (40.5%) is considered outstanding.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Mueller Industries's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: MLI's short term assets ($1.2B) exceed its short term liabilities ($451.6M).

Long Term Liabilities: MLI's short term assets ($1.2B) exceed its long term liabilities ($88.2M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: MLI has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: MLI's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 92.4% to 0.1% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: MLI's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (20792.7%).

Interest Coverage: MLI's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (235.7x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Mueller Industries's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

1.85%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: MLI's dividend (1.85%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.57%).

High Dividend: MLI's dividend (1.85%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the US market (4.23%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: MLI's dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: MLI's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (6.4%), MLI's dividend payments are thoroughly covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its low cash payout ratio (15.4%), MLI's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.3yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Greg Christopher (59 yo)

13.67yrs

Tenure

US$10,841,767

Compensation

Mr. Gregory L. Christopher, also known as Greg, has been the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mueller Industries Inc. since January 1, 2016 and October 30, 2008 respectively. Mr. Christopher served...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Greg's total compensation ($USD10.84M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD6.87M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Greg's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: MLI's management team is seasoned and experienced (5.3 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: MLI's board of directors are seasoned and experienced ( 10.4 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: MLI insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/27 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/27 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/26
Annual Earnings	2021/12/25