Earnings Update: Janus International Group, Inc. (NYSE:JBI) Just Reported Its Yearly Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

Last week, you might have seen that Janus International Group, Inc. (NYSE:JBI) released its full-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.2% to US$14.62 in the past week. Janus International Group reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$1.1b and statutory earnings per share of US$0.92, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Janus International Group after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Janus International Group

Following the latest results, Janus International Group's six analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.10b in 2024. This would be a satisfactory 3.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to expand 10% to US$1.02. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$1.13b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.02 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$17.58, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Janus International Group at US$21.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$14.50. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Janus International Group shareholders.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Janus International Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 3.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 18% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.3% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Janus International Group.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$17.58, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Janus International Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Janus International Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Janus International Group you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.