Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Is Down 5.2% After Dividend Hike and Share Buyback Reveal Strong Q2 Results – Has The Bull Case Changed?

• Howmet Aerospace recently announced second-quarter 2025 results, reporting revenue of US$2.05 billion and net income of US$407 million, along with a 20% increase to its quarterly dividend and completion of a large share buyback program totaling over 30.5 million shares for US$1.70 billion since 2021.
• The company’s raised guidance for both full-year and third-quarter revenue, alongside ongoing capital returns, highlights management’s confidence in robust demand from commercial and defense aerospace markets and expanding production capacity.
• We’ll explore how Howmet’s dividend boost and strong earnings reinforce the company’s investment narrative of sustained growth and margin expansion.

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Howmet Aerospace Investment Narrative Recap

To hold Howmet Aerospace stock, an investor needs to believe in the long-term, multi-year growth story for aerospace and defense markets, supported by rising aircraft production and sustained capital investment. The latest quarterly results, increased dividend, and continued buybacks have strengthened confidence around short-term demand, but the biggest risk remains potential slowdowns in production at major OEM customers or a mismatch of expansion investments should demand stall, these factors could still impact margins and profitability, notwithstanding recent strong performance.

Among the latest announcements, Howmet’s raised full-year and Q3 revenue guidance stands out as most relevant, signaling management’s near-term optimism around robust aerospace demand. This updated outlook builds further on recent earnings trends, as the company continues to highlight its exposure to both commercial and defense aerospace customers, which are often seen as key growth catalysts for its business.

Yet, it is important for shareholders to remember that even with resilient demand, risks persist around potential OEM production delays and the concentration of revenue with a few customers that could quickly shift if...

Read the full narrative on Howmet Aerospace (it's free!)

Howmet Aerospace's outlook forecasts $10.3 billion in revenue and $2.2 billion in earnings by 2028. This assumes a 10.1% annual revenue growth rate and an $0.8 billion increase in earnings from the current $1.4 billion level.

Uncover how Howmet Aerospace's forecasts yield a $201.95 fair value, a 11% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Six individual estimates from the Simply Wall St Community put Howmet’s fair value in a wide US$130.02 to US$201.95 range. While many see long-term industry growth as a catalyst, investor views reflect broad differences about Howmet’s earnings runway and capital allocation decisions.

Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Howmet Aerospace - why the stock might be worth as much as 11% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Howmet Aerospace Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Howmet Aerospace research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Howmet Aerospace research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Howmet Aerospace's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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