Herc Holdings Inc.

NYSE:HRI Stock Report

Market Cap: US$5.9b

Herc Holdings Valuation

Is HRI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HRI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$1.85k
Fair Value
89.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
9
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: HRI ($203.96) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($1849.67)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HRI is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HRI?

Key metric: As HRI is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HRI. This is calculated by dividing HRI's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HRI's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.6x
EarningsUS$348.00m
Market CapUS$5.92b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HRI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HRI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average23x
GATX GATX
20.7x10.5%US$5.9b
RUSH.A Rush Enterprises
15.6x3.3%US$4.8b
SITE SiteOne Landscape Supply
45.2x20.4%US$6.5b
AL Air Lease
10.5x12.4%US$5.2b
HRI Herc Holdings
16.6x15.6%US$5.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HRI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.6x) compared to the peer average (23x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HRI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Trade Distributors Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MWG Multi Ways Holdings
1.4xn/aUS$9.41m
BYU BAIYU Holdings
0.8xn/aUS$8.94m
No more companies available in this PE range
HRI 16.6xIndustry Avg. 19.2xNo. of Companies6PE01020304050+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HRI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.6x) compared to the US Trade Distributors industry average (19.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HRI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HRI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.6x
Fair PE Ratio26.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HRI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HRI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$203.96
US$248.67
+21.9%
16.0%US$294.00US$150.00n/a9
Jan ’26US$189.33
US$248.67
+31.3%
16.0%US$294.00US$150.00n/a9
Dec ’25US$232.00
US$239.78
+3.4%
18.5%US$294.00US$150.00n/a9
Nov ’25US$210.17
US$229.44
+9.2%
18.4%US$307.00US$150.00n/a9
Oct ’25US$159.82
US$188.56
+18.0%
25.8%US$307.00US$125.00n/a9
Sep ’25US$146.37
US$187.44
+28.1%
26.3%US$307.00US$125.00n/a9
Aug ’25US$144.10
US$187.44
+30.1%
26.3%US$307.00US$125.00n/a9
Jul ’25US$129.24
US$188.11
+45.6%
27.0%US$312.00US$115.00n/a9
Jun ’25US$145.07
US$189.33
+30.5%
26.5%US$312.00US$115.00n/a9
May ’25US$144.41
US$188.44
+30.5%
26.5%US$312.00US$115.00n/a9
Apr ’25US$166.47
US$180.44
+8.4%
28.7%US$304.00US$110.00n/a9
Mar ’25US$163.16
US$181.50
+11.2%
31.7%US$335.00US$110.00n/a10
Feb ’25US$152.61
US$172.91
+13.3%
33.3%US$335.00US$105.00US$203.9611
Jan ’25US$148.89
US$168.64
+13.3%
28.9%US$298.00US$105.00US$189.3311
Dec ’24US$131.32
US$168.55
+28.3%
28.9%US$298.00US$105.00US$232.0011
Nov ’24US$106.38
US$169.00
+58.9%
30.1%US$298.00US$105.00US$210.1711
Oct ’24US$118.94
US$178.64
+50.2%
28.7%US$313.00US$124.00US$159.8211
Sep ’24US$133.81
US$178.64
+33.5%
28.7%US$313.00US$124.00US$146.3711
Aug ’24US$136.03
US$174.40
+28.2%
29.8%US$313.00US$124.00US$144.1010
Jul ’24US$136.85
US$176.00
+28.6%
34.8%US$326.00US$105.00US$129.2410
Jun ’24US$103.34
US$176.00
+70.3%
34.8%US$326.00US$105.00US$145.0710
May ’24US$100.88
US$176.00
+74.5%
34.8%US$326.00US$105.00US$144.4110
Apr ’24US$113.90
US$182.60
+60.3%
29.6%US$304.00US$105.00US$166.4710
Mar ’24US$144.04
US$188.60
+30.9%
25.5%US$304.00US$140.00US$163.1610
Feb ’24US$156.77
US$180.00
+14.8%
28.2%US$304.00US$130.00US$152.6110
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 9 Analysts
US$248.67
Fair Value
18.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
9
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/31 06:44
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/31 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Herc Holdings Inc. is covered by 16 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Mircea DobreBaird
Adam SeidenBarclays
Sherif El-SabbahyBofA Global Research