Hayward Holdings, Inc. Just Beat EPS By 107%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Hayward Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:HAYW) just released its latest first-quarter results and things are looking bullish. The company beat both earnings and revenue forecasts, with revenue of US$210m, some 2.9% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$0.04, 107% ahead of expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Hayward Holdings after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Hayward Holdings

After the latest results, the consensus from Hayward Holdings' twelve analysts is for revenues of US$1.04b in 2023, which would reflect a perceptible 6.2% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are expected to sink 19% to US$0.43 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.04b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.45 in 2023. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$13.32, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Hayward Holdings analyst has a price target of US$16.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$10.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. One thing that stands out from these estimates is that shrinking revenues are expected to moderate over the period ending 2023 compared to the historical decline of 25% per annum over the past year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.3% per year. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Hayward Holdings is expected to see its sales affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Hayward Holdings. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$13.32, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Hayward Holdings analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for Hayward Holdings (1 can't be ignored!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.