Deere (DE): Is the Recent UBS Upgrade a Signal the Stock’s Valuation Is Set for a Rebound?

UBS upgraded Deere (DE) to a Buy, signaling a turning point for the agricultural machinery giant. The call hinges on expectations that the company’s earnings slump will reach its lowest point in 2026 and that recovery prospects are anticipated in 2027.

See our latest analysis for Deere.

Deere’s share price has seen a mix of pressure and resilience, with recent momentum building after UBS’s upgrade and ARK Invest’s increased exposure fueling optimism for a turnaround. While the 1-year total shareholder return is a strong 14.25%, short-term price action remained muted until this week’s positive shift. This suggests sentiment could be shifting along with recovery expectations.

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As Deere’s fortunes seem to be turning, the real question is whether the current stock price undervalues the company’s recovery prospects or if the market has already accounted for the coming rebound, which may leave little room for further upside.

Most Popular Narrative: 12.8% Undervalued

Deere’s current share price sits well below the fair value estimated by the consensus narrative, reflecting analysts’ belief in substantial upside from these levels. The fair value depends on recovery expectations and margin improvements, providing a solid foundation for a rebound argument.

Rapid adoption of Deere's precision agriculture and automation solutions (e.g., JDLink Boost, Precision Essentials bundles, See & Spray tech, and new automation features) is driving higher-value product sales and increased software engagement globally. This positions Deere to benefit from shifts toward high-efficiency, technology-enabled farming, which may boost both future revenue and net margins through higher-margin recurring software and data services.

Read the complete narrative.

What’s behind this valuation? The narrative relies on aggressive future margin expansion and a dramatic shift to tech-driven revenue streams. Wondering which growth levers, margin bets, and competitive moves might send Deere’s value surging? The full story reveals which assumptions could make this turnaround thesis pay off—or not.

Result: Fair Value of $525.66 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing tariff pressures and wavering global agricultural demand remain significant risks. These factors could challenge Deere’s anticipated earnings recovery and upbeat narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Deere narrative.

Build Your Own Deere Narrative

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A great starting point for your Deere research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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