Deere (DE): Assessing Valuation Ahead of Fourth-Quarter Earnings and Profit Forecast Challenges

Deere is on investors’ radar as the company prepares to release its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings. Despite beating revenue and earnings forecasts last quarter, the stock dipped due to concerns about weaker sales and market demand.

See our latest analysis for Deere.

After a solid start to the year, Deere’s share price momentum has moderated as investors weigh signals of softer demand and profit forecasts. Even so, the stock has delivered a total shareholder return of 17.6% over the past year. This demonstrates resilient long-term performance despite recent volatility.

If Deere’s earnings story has you wondering what else is trending, this could be the right moment to discover See the full list for free.

With expectations of a double-digit earnings decline and market caution running high, investors are left to wonder if Deere's current price reflects all the risks or if there could be an undervalued opportunity in play.

Most Popular Narrative: 8.9% Undervalued

Deere’s current price of $478.10 is just under the latest narrative consensus fair value of $524.95, hinting at further upside according to analyst projections. The outlook reflects a blend of balance sheet strength, hopes for margin recovery, and cautious optimism about market catalysts.

Analysts expect earnings to reach $8.6 billion (and earnings per share of $33.21) by about September 2028, up from $5.2 billion today. However, there is considerable disagreement among the analysts, with the most bullish expecting $9.8 billion in earnings and the most bearish expecting $5.9 billion.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what’s fueling this debate? The most widely followed narrative leans on ambitious growth in profits and margins. Behind the headline, there is a bold quantitative bet on Deere’s comeback. What key drivers really underpin the upside? Find out exactly which financial dynamics analysts are betting on to justify a premium.

Result: Fair Value of $524.95 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent global headwinds, such as rising tariffs and soft agricultural demand, could undermine Deere’s anticipated margin improvement and stall its earnings recovery.

Find out about the key risks to this Deere narrative.

Build Your Own Deere Narrative

If you have a different perspective or want to dig deeper into the numbers, you can easily craft your own narrative using our tools in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Deere research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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