A Look at Deere (DE) Valuation Following Recent Share Price Momentum

Deere (DE) shares are catching investors’ attention as the stock continues its steady climb, rising nearly 10% over the past month. The move comes amid growing curiosity about how the company’s fundamentals measure up at current valuation levels.

See our latest analysis for Deere.

Deere’s 1-year total shareholder return of 25% shows strong momentum is building behind the stock, with the latest 9.5% one-month share price return catching the eye of investors. While there have not been any headline-making events lately, the rally suggests the market is getting more optimistic about the company’s growth outlook and fundamentals at this valuation.

If Deere’s recent run sparks your curiosity, this could be a perfect moment to broaden your horizons and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With shares rallying and sentiment on the rise, the big question now is whether Deere’s current price reflects all its future growth or if there is still a window for investors to get in at an attractive valuation.

Most Popular Narrative: 8.5% Undervalued

With Deere's current share price at $480.78 and the most widely followed valuation narrative pointing to a fair value around $525, the numbers suggest meaningful upside if the assumptions play out. Yet, what's underpinning this optimism goes deeper than just a rising stock chart.

"Rapid adoption of Deere's precision agriculture and automation solutions (e.g., JDLink Boost, Precision Essentials bundles, See & Spray tech, and new automation features) is driving higher-value product sales and increased software engagement globally. This positions Deere to benefit from shifts toward high-efficiency, technology-enabled farming, and could lift both future revenue and net margins through higher-margin recurring software and data services."

Read the complete narrative.

Why is Deere’s future valuation stirring such heated debate? One crucial profit driver is buried in the assumptions. Hint: it’s all about the company’s recurring software revenue, future margins, and the projected shift in efficiency. The precise mix of growth, margins, and innovation is hiding in plain sight. Want to see the numbers that could reshape industry expectations?

Result: Fair Value of $525 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent high tariffs and unpredictable global demand could quickly shift investor sentiment. This may challenge the optimism surrounding Deere's robust technology-driven growth outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Deere narrative.

Another View: Multiples Tell a Different Story

While analyst forecasts look bright, market valuation based on earnings paints a more expensive picture. Deere trades at a 25x price-to-earnings ratio, which is higher than both the US Machinery industry (24.6x) and its peer average (23.5x). This gap hints at a risk that expectations are already baked in, leaving less room for upside if growth slows.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Deere Narrative

If you think there’s more to the story, why not dive into the data and map out your own narrative perspective in just a few minutes? Do it your way

A great starting point for your Deere research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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