What’s the value?
I use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of varying growth rates for the company’s cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a more stable growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next five years. Where possible I use analyst estimates, but when these aren’t available I have extrapolated the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the year before. For this growth rate I used the average annual growth rate over the past five years, but capped at a reasonable level. I then discount this to its value today and sum up the total to get the present value of these cash flows.
5-year cash flow forecast
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
| Levered FCF ($, Millions) | $44.90 | $84.35 | $122.95 | $124.40 | $125.87 |
| Source | Analyst x2 | Analyst x2 | Analyst x2 | Extrapolated @ (1.18%) | Extrapolated @ (1.18%) |
| Present Value Discounted @ 9.84% | $40.88 | $69.92 | $92.79 | $85.48 | $78.74 |
Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= US$367.80m
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 5-year period we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at an annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 2.9%. We discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 9.8%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2022 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$125.87m × (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (9.8% – 2.9%) = US$1.88b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = US$1.88b ÷ ( 1 + 9.8%)5 = US$1.18b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next five years and the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$1.54b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding, or the equivalent number if this is a depositary receipt or ADR. This results in an intrinsic value of $56.74. Relative to the current share price of $62.75, the stock is fair value, maybe slightly overvalued and not available at a discount at this time.
The assumptions
I’d like to point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don’t agree with my result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. Because we are looking at Cubic as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 9.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.977. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. For CUB, I’ve put together three key factors you should further examine:
- Financial Health: Does CUB have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does CUB’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of CUB? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow for every stock on the NYSE every 6 hours. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.