Does Reaffirmed Guidance and Aggressive M&A Shift the Bull Case For Core & Main (CNM)?

• Earlier in December 2025, Core & Main reported third-quarter results showing year-over-year gains in sales and earnings, reaffirmed its full-year 2025 net sales guidance of US$7.60 billion to US$7.70 billion, highlighted an active M&A pipeline including expansion into the US$5.00 billion Canadian market, and disclosed additional share repurchases under its existing buyback program.
• Management’s emphasis on strong free cash flow, disciplined capital deployment across M&A, organic investments, and buybacks, and confidence in upcoming acquisition announcements underscores how Core & Main is using its balance sheet to reinforce its growth and capital return priorities.
• We’ll now look at how reaffirmed guidance and ongoing M&A plans potentially reshape Core & Main’s existing investment narrative and outlook.

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Core & Main Investment Narrative Recap

To own Core & Main, you need to believe in steady municipal and infrastructure demand, plus disciplined use of cash to grow through acquisitions and reinvestment. The latest quarter’s modest year-over-year progress and reaffirmed 2025 sales guidance support that steady thesis, but do not meaningfully change the near term focus on execution of M&A as a key catalyst or the ongoing risk that higher interest costs and debt levels could pressure earnings if conditions worsen.

The most relevant update here is management’s reaffirmation of full year 2025 net sales guidance at US$7.60 billion to US$7.70 billion, alongside commentary about an active acquisition pipeline, including Canada. This pairing matters because it ties the core catalyst of M&A led expansion to a still intact near term sales outlook, giving investors a clearer frame for judging how any upcoming deals, and the associated use of the balance sheet, could influence both growth and financial risk.

Yet investors should also weigh how higher borrowings, rising interest costs and new acquisitions could interact if...

Read the full narrative on Core & Main (it's free!)

Core & Main's narrative projects $8.7 billion revenue and $645.7 million earnings by 2028. This requires 4.4% yearly revenue growth and a $229.7 million earnings increase from $416.0 million today.

Uncover how Core & Main's forecasts yield a $59.62 fair value, a 11% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Core & Main span roughly US$51.60 to US$74.99, showing how far private investors can differ on upside potential. Against this backdrop of wide opinions, the emphasis on an active yet disciplined M&A pipeline and ongoing share repurchases puts the spotlight on how effectively Core & Main can turn balance sheet flexibility into durable earnings power.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Core & Main - why the stock might be worth as much as 39% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Core & Main Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Core & Main research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Core & Main research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Core & Main's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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