Will Residential HVAC Demand Shape Carrier Global's (CARR) Broader Growth Narrative?

• Earlier this quarter, Carrier Global Corporation revised its guidance for the residential HVAC segment, pointing to weaker demand and dealer inventory reduction, while its commercial HVAC and aftermarket divisions reported more stable results.
• This shift puts a spotlight on the residential business's significant influence on Carrier's earnings outlook and raises questions about how persistent this demand softness may be.
• We'll now explore how the softened residential HVAC outlook could alter the company's broader investment narrative and future expectations.

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Carrier Global Investment Narrative Recap

Carrier Global’s investment thesis centers on the long-term opportunity for intelligent climate and energy solutions, with particular attention to the health of residential HVAC. The recent guidance revision calls direct attention to near-term weakness in residential demand, which remains the most important short-term catalyst, while also amplifying the risk that a prolonged downturn could weigh on earnings beyond this quarter. For investors, the story now hinges on how quickly the residential slowdown stabilizes or reverses.

Among recent news, Carrier’s decision to lower its 2025 earnings guidance, cutting projected sales to US$22.0 billion, directly reflects this weakened outlook. This adjustment is tightly tied to the residential HVAC headwinds, and underscores the impact that a single segment’s volatility can have on the broader company narrative.

By contrast, investors should be aware that the current catalyst for recovery depends heavily on...

Read the full narrative on Carrier Global (it's free!)

Carrier Global's outlook anticipates $26.7 billion in revenue and $2.9 billion in earnings by 2028. This is based on an expected annual revenue growth rate of 5.9% and a rise in earnings of $1.4 billion from the current $1.5 billion level.

Uncover how Carrier Global's forecasts yield a $72.94 fair value, a 35% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Five fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from US$26.44 to US$50,066.89 per share. Given this wide spread, it is clear that opinions differ sharply, and with the residential HVAC segment exerting significant influence on near-term results, many are reconsidering what could shape Carrier’s future performance.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Carrier Global - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Carrier Global Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Carrier Global research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Carrier Global research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Carrier Global's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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