Analyst Forecasts Just Became More Bearish On Atkore Inc. (NYSE:ATKR)

One thing we could say about the analysts on Atkore Inc. (NYSE:ATKR) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. There was a fairly draconian cut to their revenue estimates, perhaps an implicit admission that previous forecasts were much too optimistic.

Following the latest downgrade, the current consensus, from the six analysts covering Atkore, is for revenues of US$3.1b in 2025, which would reflect a noticeable 7.0% reduction in Atkore's sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are supposed to plunge 29% to US$10.53 in the same period. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$16.44 in 2025. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about Atkore's prospects, administering a substantial drop in revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.

See our latest analysis for Atkore

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 28% to US$130.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 5.6% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 16% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 7.8% per year. It's pretty clear that Atkore's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest issue in the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for Atkore. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that Atkore's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. The consensus price target fell measurably, with analysts seemingly not reassured by recent business developments, leading to a lower estimate of Atkore's future valuation. Overall, given the drastic downgrade to next year's forecasts, we'd be feeling a little more wary of Atkore going forwards.

As you can see, the analysts clearly aren't bullish, and there might be good reason for that. We've identified some potential issues with Atkore's financials, such as recent substantial insider selling. Learn more, and discover the 1 other risk we've identified, for free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies backed by insiders.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.