Ameresco, Inc. Just Beat EPS By 376%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Ameresco, Inc. (NYSE:AMRC) just released its quarterly report and things are looking bullish. It was a solid earnings report, with revenues and statutory earnings per share (EPS) both coming in strong. Revenues were 14% higher than the analysts had forecast, at US$472m, while EPS were US$0.24 beating analyst models by 376%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Ameresco's twelve analysts is for revenues of US$1.90b in 2025. This reflects a credible 2.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to nosedive 32% to US$0.80 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.89b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.83 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

See our latest analysis for Ameresco

Despite cutting their earnings forecasts,the analysts have lifted their price target 17% to US$25.78, suggesting that these impacts are not expected to weigh on the stock's value in the long term. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Ameresco, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$36.00 and the most bearish at US$11.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Ameresco's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 11% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.9% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Ameresco.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Ameresco's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Ameresco analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Ameresco (1 is concerning!) that you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.