The Allegion plc (NYSE:ALLE) Annual Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

Last week, you might have seen that Allegion plc (NYSE:ALLE) released its full-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.5% to US$127 in the past week. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of US$3.8b and statutory earnings per share of US$6.82. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Allegion

After the latest results, the eleven analysts covering Allegion are now predicting revenues of US$3.86b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a modest 2.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 3.9% to US$7.19. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.90b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.26 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$142, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Allegion analyst has a price target of US$165 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$110. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Allegion shareholders.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Allegion's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 7.6% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Allegion.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Allegion. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Allegion going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Allegion that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.