The board of AGCO Corporation (NYSE:AGCO) has announced that it will pay a dividend on the 15th of September, with investors receiving $0.29 per share. Based on this payment, the dividend yield on the company's stock will be 3.3%, which is an attractive boost to shareholder returns.
AGCO's Future Dividend Projections Appear Well Covered By Earnings
Impressive dividend yields are good, but this doesn't matter much if the payments can't be sustained. Before this announcement, AGCO was paying out 87% of earnings, but a comparatively small 40% of free cash flows. In general, cash flows are more important than earnings, so we are comfortable that the dividend will be sustainable going forward, especially with so much cash left over for reinvestment.
Analysts expect a massive rise in earnings per share in the next year. If the dividend continues along recent trends, we estimate the payout ratio will be 12%, which would make us comfortable with the dividend's sustainability, despite the levels currently being elevated.
View our latest analysis for AGCO
Dividend Volatility
Although the company has a long dividend history, it has been cut at least once in the last 10 years. The dividend has gone from an annual total of $0.44 in 2015 to the most recent total annual payment of $3.66. This works out to be a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 24% a year over that time. Dividends have grown rapidly over this time, but with cuts in the past we are not certain that this stock will be a reliable source of income in the future.
AGCO's Dividend Might Lack Growth
With a relatively unstable dividend, it's even more important to evaluate if earnings per share is growing, which could point to a growing dividend in the future. AGCO has impressed us by growing EPS at 13% per year over the past five years. Past earnings growth has been decent, but unless this is one of those rare businesses that can grow without additional capital investment or marketing spend, we'd generally expect the higher payout ratio to limit its future growth prospects.
In Summary
Overall, we don't think this company makes a great dividend stock, even though the dividend wasn't cut this year. The payments haven't been particularly stable and we don't see huge growth potential, but with the dividend well covered by cash flows it could prove to be reliable over the short term. We would probably look elsewhere for an income investment.
It's important to note that companies having a consistent dividend policy will generate greater investor confidence than those having an erratic one. Meanwhile, despite the importance of dividend payments, they are not the only factors our readers should know when assessing a company. For example, we've picked out 5 warning signs for AGCO that investors should know about before committing capital to this stock. Looking for more high-yielding dividend ideas? Try our collection of strong dividend payers.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.