AECOM's (NYSE:ACM) Fundamentals Look Pretty Strong: Could The Market Be Wrong About The Stock?

AECOM (NYSE:ACM) has had a rough month with its share price down 4.1%. However, stock prices are usually driven by a company’s financials over the long term, which in this case look pretty respectable. In this article, we decided to focus on AECOM's ROE.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

Check out our latest analysis for AECOM

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for AECOM is:

8.8% = US$231m ÷ US$2.6b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2023).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. One way to conceptualize this is that for each $1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made $0.09 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

A Side By Side comparison of AECOM's Earnings Growth And 8.8% ROE

When you first look at it, AECOM's ROE doesn't look that attractive. A quick further study shows that the company's ROE doesn't compare favorably to the industry average of 13% either. AECOM was still able to see a decent net income growth of 17% over the past five years. So, the growth in the company's earnings could probably have been caused by other variables. Such as - high earnings retention or an efficient management in place.

We then performed a comparison between AECOM's net income growth with the industry, which revealed that the company's growth is similar to the average industry growth of 18% in the same 5-year period.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. Is ACM fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is AECOM Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

AECOM's three-year median payout ratio to shareholders is 22% (implying that it retains 78% of its income), which is on the lower side, so it seems like the management is reinvesting profits heavily to grow its business.

While AECOM has seen growth in its earnings, it only recently started to pay a dividend. It is most likely that the company decided to impress new and existing shareholders with a dividend. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to drop to 16% over the next three years. Accordingly, the expected drop in the payout ratio explains the expected increase in the company's ROE to 26%, over the same period.

Conclusion

Overall, we feel that AECOM certainly does have some positive factors to consider. Even in spite of the low rate of return, the company has posted impressive earnings growth as a result of reinvesting heavily into its business. Having said that, looking at the current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings are expected to gain momentum. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.