Is Titan Machinery Inc. (NASDAQ:TITN) Potentially Undervalued?

While Titan Machinery Inc. (NASDAQ:TITN) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it led the NASDAQGS gainers with a relatively large price hike in the past couple of weeks. With many analysts covering the stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price. However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Titan Machinery’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.

Check out the opportunities and risks within the US Trade Distributors industry.

What's The Opportunity In Titan Machinery?

The share price seems sensible at the moment according to my price multiple model, where I compare the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 11.45x is currently trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 11.58x, which means if you buy Titan Machinery today, you’d be paying a decent price for it. And if you believe Titan Machinery should be trading in this range, then there isn’t much room for the share price to grow beyond the levels of other industry peers over the long-term. So, is there another chance to buy low in the future? Given that Titan Machinery’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us an opportunity to buy later on. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

Can we expect growth from Titan Machinery?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Though in the case of Titan Machinery, it is expected to deliver a relatively unexciting earnings growth of 2.4%, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. Growth doesn’t appear to be a main reason for a buy decision for Titan Machinery, at least in the near term.

What This Means For You

Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has already priced in TITN’s growth outlook, with shares trading around industry price multiples. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at TITN? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below the industry PE ratio?

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on TITN, now may not be the most advantageous time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. However, the positive growth outlook may mean it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Titan Machinery at this point in time. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Titan Machinery you should be mindful of and 1 of them is potentially serious.

If you are no longer interested in Titan Machinery, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.