Sunrun Future Growth
Future criteria checks 0/6
Sunrun's earnings are forecast to decline at 77.1% per annum while its annual revenue is expected to grow at 7.3% per year. EPS is expected to decline by 75.1% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be -0.7% in 3 years.
Key information
-77.1%
Earnings growth rate
-75.13%
EPS growth rate
| Electrical earnings growth | 16.6% |
| Revenue growth rate | 7.3% |
| Future return on equity | -0.74% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 22 Apr 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
RUN: Cash Generation And Asset Monetization Will Drive Future Residential Ownership Story
Analysts have nudged their Sunrun price target slightly lower to about $29.48 from $30, citing a mix of adjusted cash flow expectations, pressure on profit margins, distribution channel concerns, and updated P/E assumptions following a series of recent target cuts and rating changes across the Street. Analyst Commentary Street research around Sunrun has been active, with a mix of target cuts, rating changes, and a few higher targets that reflect differing views on cash generation, valuation, and execution.RUN: Cash Generation And Asset Monetization Will Reshape Residential Ownership Story
Sunrun's analyst fair value estimate has been reset from $27.00 to $30.00, reflecting a combination of lowered Street price targets and revised views on cash generation, growth, and profitability assumptions across recent research updates. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on Sunrun show a wide spread in opinions, with some firms cutting targets sharply while others highlight improving cash generation and operational execution.
RUN: Financing Complexity And Grid Projects Will Shape Future Cash Generation Potential
Sunrun's analyst fair value estimate has been revised down from $16.37 to $12.81 as analysts factor in lower solar origination growth, a more muted revenue outlook, and slightly softer margin expectations, despite mixed views on long term cash generation and valuation. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Sunrun highlights a split view, with a cluster of reduced price targets and rating downgrades offset by some more constructive opinions that emphasize cash generation and operational progress.
RUN: Asset Monetization And Cash Generation Will Support Post Incentive Equity Upside
Narrative Update on Sunrun The analyst price target in our model moves slightly lower from $22.74 to $22.20 as analysts temper revenue growth and profit margin assumptions and point to elevated valuation compared with peers, while also highlighting cash generation and asset monetization as key supports. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Sunrun is mixed, with some analysts encouraged by cash generation and asset monetization, while others focus on valuation risk and forecasting uncertainties.RUN: Financing Complexity Will Likely Limit Returns Despite Expanding Distributed Power Programs
Analysts have trimmed their Sunrun price target by $1 to $19 and maintained a more cautious, hold‑style stance, citing the stock's complex mix of utility-like operations and specialty financing exposure as key reasons for the reassessment. Analyst Commentary Recent research commentary on Sunrun points to a more cautious stance, with analysts highlighting the stock's complexity and the challenges that can come with its mix of utility-style operations and specialty financing structures.RUN: Financing Complexity And Execution Risks Will Likely Cap Future Upside
Narrative Update Analysts have made a modest upward adjustment to their Sunrun fair value estimate, from about US$16.26 to roughly US$16.37, citing updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple following recent research that includes a revised US$19 price target and a Market Perform stance. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Sunrun reflects a cautious stance from several bearish analysts, who see the stock as complex and exposed to execution and valuation risks.RUN: Residential Third Party Ownership And New Partnerships Will Reshape Equity Story
Our Sunrun narrative fair value moves from US$29.36 to US$27.00 as analysts weigh mixed recent research, with some pointing to improved revenue growth and margin assumptions while others adopt more cautious price targets and ratings. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Sunrun reflects a split view, with some analysts focusing on structural complexity and others highlighting potential upside tied to execution and policy support.RUN: Residential Solar Partnerships And Capital Returns Will Reshape Equity Story
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Sunrun from US$23.58 to US$29.36, citing a combination of higher target prices, updated discount rates, and revised expectations for growth, margins, and future P/E multiples across recent research. Analyst Commentary Recent research shows a cluster of bullish analysts lifting price targets and upgrading their views on Sunrun, even as some remain more cautious.The Market Is Missing Sunrun's Cash And Battery Boom
Jan 05RUN: Policy Tailwinds May Prove Insufficient To Sustain Current Share Price
The Analyst Price Target for Sunrun has been raised significantly to $30 from $20, as analysts point to stronger long term revenue growth, improving profit margins, and a higher justified earnings multiple supported by favorable policy tailwinds and growing residential solar demand. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Sunrun reflects a generally constructive outlook, with a series of price target increases and upgrades signaling renewed confidence in the company’s long term earnings power and its positioning in residential solar.RUN: Third-Party Ownership Will Accelerate Gains Following Clean Energy Incentive Expiry
Sunrun's analyst price targets have notably increased, with the fair value estimate rising from $22.39 to $22.74 per share. Analysts cite regulatory tailwinds and the company's advantageous position amid evolving clean energy incentives.RUN: Residential Policy Shifts Will Drive Demand For Third-Party Solar Ownership
Analysts have increased their price target for Sunrun from approximately $21.03 to $22.39 per share. This change reflects improved profit margin projections and optimism around the company’s positioning as residential solar policy shifts unfold.Earnings Miss: Sunrun Inc. Missed EPS By 58% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts
Nov 09
RUN: Supportive Policy Changes And Market Demand Will Drive Mixed Outcomes Ahead
Sunrun’s fair value estimate has been raised from $19.39 to $21.03 per share. Analysts cite improved sector tailwinds, anticipated policy benefits, and accelerating growth expectations for the residential solar leader as the main reasons for this increase.Grid And Solar Services Will Shape Future Energy Landscape
Sunrun's fair value estimate has been raised from $17.18 to $19.39. Analysts cite increased confidence in long-term cash flow visibility, capital return potential, and improved policy clarity as supportive factors for the higher price target.What Sunrun Inc.'s (NASDAQ:RUN) 27% Share Price Gain Is Not Telling You
Oct 10Grid And Solar Services Will Shape Future Energy Landscape
Sunrun's analyst price target has increased from approximately $15.92 to $17.18 per share. This change reflects recent upgrades and expanded long-term visibility cited by analysts.Grid And Solar Services Will Shape Future Energy Landscape
Sunrun’s analyst price target was raised as recent regulatory changes improved solar tax credit visibility and reduced key policy risks, resulting in a modest fair value increase from $15.29 to $15.92. Analyst Commentary Regulatory changes preserved the solar investment tax credit (ITC) for residential leasing, providing a lifeline to Sunrun’s core business model and offsetting near-term risks previously expected from potential policy rollbacks.Grid And Solar Services Will Shape Future Energy Landscape
Analysts have increased Sunrun’s price target as favorable U.S. Treasury and Senate guidance has extended key tax credits and removed regulatory overhangs, outweighing ongoing cost and regulatory risks, resulting in a revised fair value of $15.29. Analyst Commentary Recent U.S. Treasury guidance maintains favorable tax credit treatment for residential solar, removing anticipated restrictions and providing regulatory clarity, which is positive for Sunrun.Grid And Solar Services Will Shape Future Energy Landscape
Sunrun's consensus price target was modestly raised to $14.00 as analysts cited alleviated regulatory risks from favorable Senate bill revisions, extended tax credit eligibility for solar leases, and improved industry outlook, though ongoing operational and regulatory challenges temper valuation upside. Analyst Commentary Removal of proposed tax credit elimination for leased solar equipment and excise taxes in the latest Senate bill significantly alleviates regulatory risk and allows key residential solar business models to remain viable.Sunrun Inc. (NASDAQ:RUN) Not Doing Enough For Some Investors As Its Shares Slump 29%
Jun 13Sunrun Inc. (NASDAQ:RUN) Held Back By Insufficient Growth Even After Shares Climb 26%
Apr 29
Optimizing Product Mix And AI Investments Will Improve Efficiency By 2025
Sunrun's strategic focus on high-quality growth and cost management boosts cash generation and expands net margins.Sunrun: Financials Are Too Risky For Me
Mar 21Benign Growth For Sunrun Inc. (NASDAQ:RUN) Underpins Its Share Price
Feb 24Sunrun: A Struggling Company With More Trouble Ahead
Jan 08Sunrun: Burning Through Cash With Significant Balance Sheet Concerns
Dec 26Risks Still Elevated At These Prices As Sunrun Inc. (NASDAQ:RUN) Shares Dive 27%
Oct 22As Sunrun's Debt Grows, The Company Has A Profitability Problem
Oct 09Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 3,721 | 57 | -4,490 | -119 | 11 |
| 12/31/2027 | 3,208 | 105 | -3,042 | -393 | 18 |
| 12/31/2026 | 2,893 | 79 | -2,524 | -432 | 18 |
| 12/31/2025 | 2,957 | 448 | -2,922 | -421 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 2,317 | -2,467 | -3,661 | -777 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 2,129 | -2,568 | -3,716 | -811 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 2,084 | -2,708 | -3,544 | -727 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 2,038 | -2,846 | -3,467 | -766 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 2,036 | -383 | -3,189 | -624 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 2,062 | -1,368 | -3,073 | -531 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 2,128 | -1,452 | -3,161 | -525 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 2,260 | -1,604 | -3,429 | -821 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 2,352 | -1,189 | -3,480 | -1,009 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 2,421 | 91 | -3,312 | -1,036 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 2,415 | 23 | -3,126 | -1,032 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 2,321 | 176 | -2,860 | -849 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 2,147 | 72 | -2,806 | -825 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 1,954 | -115 | -2,790 | -916 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 1,771 | -143 | -2,644 | -888 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 1,610 | -79 | -2,503 | -817 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 1,495 | -210 | -2,233 | -687 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 1,266 | -197 | -1,884 | -521 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 1,046 | -169 | -1,503 | -387 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 922 | -173 | -1,288 | -318 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 846 | 8 | -1,112 | -265 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 852 | 0 | -1,103 | -300 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 875 | 12 | -1,182 | -333 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 859 | 26 | -1,045 | -204 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 855 | 8 | N/A | -128 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 844 | -24 | N/A | -61 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 810 | -15 | N/A | -5 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 760 | 27 | N/A | -62 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 672 | 102 | N/A | -73 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 612 | 133 | N/A | -105 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 572 | 144 | N/A | -104 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 533 | 125 | N/A | -96 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 501 | 85 | N/A | -87 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 468 | 74 | N/A | -101 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 460 | 88 | N/A | -111 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 477 | 75 | N/A | -200 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 433 | 48 | N/A | -161 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 404 | 3 | N/A | -159 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 354 | -30 | N/A | -180 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 305 | -53 | N/A | -105 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 265 | -65 | N/A | -84 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 239 | -52 | N/A | -63 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: RUN's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-77.1% per year).
Earnings vs Market: RUN's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-77.1% per year).
High Growth Earnings: RUN's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: RUN's revenue (7.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.1% per year).
High Growth Revenue: RUN's revenue (7.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: RUN is forecast to be unprofitable in 3 years.
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/04/30 20:45 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/04/29 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Sunrun Inc. is covered by 37 analysts. 18 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Christine Cho | Barclays |
| Moses Sutton | Barclays |
| Moses Sutton | Barclays |