There's Reason For Concern Over Sunrun Inc.'s (NASDAQ:RUN) Massive 30% Price Jump

Sunrun Inc. (NASDAQ:RUN) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 30% gain in the last month alone. Unfortunately, the gains of the last month did little to right the losses of the last year with the stock still down 22% over that time.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Sunrun's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.8x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Electrical industry in the United States, seeing as it matches the P/S ratio of the wider industry. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

See our latest analysis for Sunrun

How Has Sunrun Performed Recently?

While the industry has experienced revenue growth lately, Sunrun's revenue has gone into reverse gear, which is not great. Perhaps the market is expecting its poor revenue performance to improve, keeping the P/S from dropping. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Sunrun will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Sunrun's to be considered reasonable.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 12%. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow revenue by an impressive 103% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing revenue over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 13% per annum as estimated by the analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 47% per annum growth forecast for the broader industry.

In light of this, it's curious that Sunrun's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Bottom Line On Sunrun's P/S

Sunrun appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump bringing its P/S back in line with other companies in the industry We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

When you consider that Sunrun's revenue growth estimates are fairly muted compared to the broader industry, it's easy to see why we consider it unexpected to be trading at its current P/S ratio. At present, we aren't confident in the P/S as the predicted future revenues aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 5 warning signs for Sunrun (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you need to be mindful of.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com