Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (NASDAQ:RKLB) After Its Second-Quarter Report

It's been a pretty great week for Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (NASDAQ:RKLB) shareholders, with its shares surging 12% to US$5.37 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues of US$106m arrived in line with expectations, although statutory losses per share were US$0.08, an impressive 21% smaller than what broker models predicted. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Rocket Lab USA

Following the latest results, Rocket Lab USA's eleven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$429.1m in 2024. This would be a substantial 31% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to increase slightly, to US$0.38 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$434.1m and US$0.39 per share in losses.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$7.20, suggesting that the business - losses and all - is executing in line with estimates. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Rocket Lab USA at US$10.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$4.50. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Rocket Lab USA's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 73% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 52% p.a. over the past three years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 2.7% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Rocket Lab USA to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$7.20, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Rocket Lab USA going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Rocket Lab USA that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.