Mercury Systems, Inc.

NasdaqGS:MRCY Stock Report

Market Cap: US$2.4b

Mercury Systems Valuation

Is MRCY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MRCY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MRCY ($39.7) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($72.93)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MRCY is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MRCY?

Key metric: As MRCY is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for MRCY. This is calculated by dividing MRCY's market cap by their current revenue.
What is MRCY's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio2.8x
SalesUS$858.72m
Market CapUS$2.37b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does MRCY's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for MRCY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.6x
AIR AAR
0.9x8.4%US$2.1b
TGI Triumph Group
1.1x7.9%US$1.4b
KAMN Kaman
1.7x3.6%US$1.3b
CDRE Cadre Holdings
2.7x9.2%US$1.4b
MRCY Mercury Systems
2.8x4.3%US$2.4b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: MRCY is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.8x) compared to the peer average (1.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does MRCY's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Aerospace & Defense Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VVX V2X
0.4x4.8%US$1.55b
LLAP Terran Orbital
0.4x29.5%US$51.22m
SIF SIFCO Industries
0.2xn/aUS$24.72m
AIRI Air Industries Group
0.3x1.8%US$14.34m
MRCY 2.8xIndustry Avg. 2.4xNo. of Companies14PS0246810+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: MRCY is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.8x) compared to the US Aerospace & Defense industry average (2.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MRCY's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MRCY PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio2.8x
Fair PS Ratio1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: MRCY is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MRCY forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$39.70
US$34.25
-13.7%
21.2%US$42.00US$20.00n/a8
Dec ’25US$41.13
US$34.25
-16.7%
21.2%US$42.00US$20.00n/a8
Nov ’25US$33.18
US$31.38
-5.4%
21.4%US$40.00US$20.00n/a8
Oct ’25US$37.89
US$31.38
-17.2%
21.4%US$40.00US$20.00n/a8
Sep ’25US$37.90
US$30.13
-20.5%
22.1%US$40.00US$20.00n/a8
Aug ’25US$34.38
US$25.75
-25.1%
15.6%US$33.00US$20.00n/a8
Jul ’25US$28.35
US$25.75
-9.2%
15.6%US$33.00US$20.00n/a8
Jun ’25US$30.95
US$25.75
-16.8%
15.6%US$33.00US$20.00n/a8
May ’25US$28.66
US$25.50
-11.0%
17.1%US$33.00US$20.00n/a8
Apr ’25US$29.11
US$25.25
-13.3%
18.0%US$33.00US$20.00n/a8
Mar ’25US$29.73
US$25.25
-15.1%
18.0%US$33.00US$20.00n/a8
Feb ’25US$30.70
US$34.88
+13.6%
19.5%US$48.00US$24.00n/a8
Jan ’25US$36.57
US$37.13
+1.5%
13.2%US$48.00US$30.00n/a8
Dec ’24US$35.19
US$36.50
+3.7%
14.2%US$48.00US$30.00US$41.138
Nov ’24US$35.89
US$38.43
+7.1%
12.5%US$48.00US$32.00US$33.187
Oct ’24US$37.09
US$36.71
-1.0%
17.5%US$48.00US$25.00US$37.897
Sep ’24US$38.95
US$37.43
-3.9%
17.3%US$48.00US$25.00US$37.907
Aug ’24US$37.94
US$38.83
+2.4%
14.8%US$48.00US$30.00US$34.386
Jul ’24US$34.59
US$39.57
+14.4%
15.0%US$48.00US$30.00US$28.357
Jun ’24US$40.18
US$50.57
+25.9%
10.2%US$58.00US$45.00US$30.957
May ’24US$46.61
US$57.71
+23.8%
9.0%US$69.00US$52.00US$28.667
Apr ’24US$51.12
US$57.00
+11.5%
9.2%US$69.00US$52.00US$29.118
Mar ’24US$53.31
US$57.00
+6.9%
9.2%US$69.00US$52.00US$29.738
Feb ’24US$56.19
US$55.44
-1.3%
10.8%US$69.00US$48.00US$30.709
Jan ’24US$44.74
US$55.56
+24.2%
9.8%US$69.00US$48.00US$36.579
Dec ’23US$51.52
US$56.33
+9.3%
11.8%US$69.00US$48.00US$35.199

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 05:04
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/27
Annual Earnings2024/06/28

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Mercury Systems, Inc. is covered by 21 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Peter ArmentBaird
Christopher RiegerBerenberg
Michael CiarmoliBoenning & Scattergood, Inc.