Mercury Systems Future Growth
Future criteria checks 3/6
Mercury Systems is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 113% and 7.9% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 114.3% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 5.2% in 3 years.
Key information
113.0%
Earnings growth rate
114.35%
EPS growth rate
| Aerospace & Defense earnings growth | 18.5% |
| Revenue growth rate | 7.9% |
| Future return on equity | 5.24% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 06 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • Apr 29
MRCY: Execution Risk In Space Contracts Will Limit Upside Potential
Analysts have modestly adjusted their blended price target on Mercury Systems to reflect a mixed set of recent updates, with Jefferies trimming its view by a combined $15 while Truist, RBC Capital, and Canaccord issued increases of $7, $10, and $14 respectively, citing differing expectations around growth, margins, and future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Mercury Systems reflects a split view, with some firms lifting their price targets while others are trimming theirs.Seeking Alpha • Apr 23
Mercury Systems: Buy Maintained, But Cost Inflation Is The Swing Factor
Summary Mercury Systems, Inc. remains a Buy, with a base case price target of $97.53 (18% upside) and a more bullish target of $113.45 (37% upside). MRCY benefits from long-term demand for defense microelectronics but faces near-term risks from supply chain fragility and rising input costs due to geopolitical tensions. Recent estimate revisions show minimal change in annual revenue and EBITDA, but Q3 2026 EPS was trimmed 70% as non-recurring material receipts were excluded from ongoing guidance. Margin improvement is expected as higher-margin backlog converts to revenue, supporting free cash flow growth and potential for increased share repurchases. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Apr 15
MRCY: Ongoing Execution Risk Will Constrain Defense Contract Upside
Mercury Systems' updated analyst price target shifted to $62 from about $64, as analysts adjusted their models for changes in projected growth, margins, discount rate and future P/E assumptions following a mix of recent target cuts and raises across the Street. Analyst Commentary Street research on Mercury Systems has been active, with a mix of higher and lower price targets reflecting different views on how much risk investors should price into the shares.
Narrative Update • Mar 31
MRCY: Space And Weapons Contracts Will Support Future Repricing Potential
Analysts have adjusted their Mercury Systems price targets in a mixed but generally constructive way, with several firms raising targets by $6 to $14 while one reduced its view by $10. These changes reflect updated expectations around defense demand, aircraft production and the importance of careful stock selection in higher valuation defense tech names.Narrative Update • Mar 16
MRCY: Space And Strategic Weapons Contracts Will Drive Renewed Uptrend
Analysts have raised the implied fair value estimate for Mercury Systems to $97.50 from $86.00. This change reflects a series of recent Street price target revisions that indicate higher assumed revenue and profit margins, even though one firm reduced its target by $10.
Narrative Update • Mar 02
MRCY: Higher Margins And Defense Recapitalization Efforts Will Support Stronger Earnings Quality
Analysts have made modest adjustments to their price targets on Mercury Systems, with shifts such as Jefferies trimming its view by $10 while others raised theirs by $6 to $14. These changes reflect updated expectations around margins, growth and future P/E assumptions rather than a change to the $120 fair value in our framework.Narrative Update • Feb 16
MRCY: Limited Defense Catalysts And Execution Risk Will Pressure Future Returns
Analysts have raised their blended price target for Mercury Systems from about $55 to roughly $63.70. They cite updated assumptions regarding revenue growth, profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple, which reflect recent target changes from firms that have both increased and decreased their views on the stock.Narrative Update • Feb 02
MRCY: Elevated Sector Pricing And One Off Revenue Timing Will Pressure Returns
Analysts raised their price target on Mercury Systems by about $2.50, supported by slightly higher fair value estimates, a modestly lower discount rate, and small upward adjustments to revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, while keeping future P/E expectations broadly stable. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Mercury Systems highlights a mix of optimism around fair value and caution around how that value might be realized.Narrative Update • Jan 19
MRCY: Higher Margins And Space Contracts Will Support Stronger Earnings Quality
Narrative Update Analysts have raised their implied fair value range for Mercury Systems from about $80 to roughly $120 per share, citing higher modeled revenue, improved profit margins, and sector research indicating supportive demand trends in aerospace and defense. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are nudging their expectations higher for Mercury Systems, with recent price target revisions pointing to increased confidence in both execution and earnings quality.Analysis Article • Jan 14
Mercury Systems, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:MRCY) 33% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Revenues
Mercury Systems, Inc. ( NASDAQ:MRCY ) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 33% share price jump in the...Narrative Update • Jan 05
MRCY: Accelerated High Margin Revenue Will Likely Inflate Near Term Expectations
Analysts have raised their price targets on Mercury Systems to a range of US$95 to US$100, citing Q3 results that benefited from about US$20m of accelerated, high margin revenue, a 1.1x book to bill, minimal perceived shutdown risk, and solid demand trends across aircraft production and aftermarket activity. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Mercury Systems has focused on the quality of Q3 earnings, the sustainability of current margins, and how exposed the business might be to macro and government related risks.Narrative Update • Dec 15
MRCY: Elevated Expectations Around Accelerated Revenue Will Likely Pressure Shares
Analysts have raised their price target on Mercury Systems significantly, from about $40 to roughly $53 per share. They cite stronger than expected Q3 execution, higher margin contributions from accelerated revenue, and improving aerospace and defense demand that supports higher growth and profitability assumptions.Narrative Update • Nov 30
MRCY: Share Repurchase And Q3 Strength Will Drive Renewed Uptrend
Analysts have raised their average price target for Mercury Systems. Recent updates reflect an increase from $71 to a range up to $100 per share.Narrative Update • Nov 16
MRCY: Future Demand Strength In Defense And Aerospace Will Drive Share Gains
Mercury Systems’ analyst price target has increased significantly from $81.13 to $86.00. Analysts point to recent operational outperformance, improved profit margins, and positive demand trends as supporting factors for the higher valuation.Analysis Article • Nov 07
The Mercury Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRCY) First-Quarter Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts
Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from Mercury Systems, Inc. ( NASDAQ:MRCY ), an important milestone...Narrative Update • Nov 01
MRCY: Future Demand From Aerospace And Defense Will Shape Fair Outlook
Analysts have raised their price target for Mercury Systems from $77.50 to $81.13, citing improving sentiment in the aerospace and defense sector, increased aftermarket demand, and model updates that reflect continued operational progress. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst research has highlighted both optimism and caution regarding Mercury Systems' near-term performance and long-term prospects.Narrative Update • Oct 17
US And European Defense Trends Will Drive Transformation
Analysts have raised their price target for Mercury Systems significantly, increasing it from $72.63 to $77.50. They cite improved revenue stability, higher profit margin forecasts, and continued industry optimism surrounding aerospace and defense suppliers.Narrative Update • Oct 03
US And European Defense Trends Will Drive Transformation
Analysts have raised their price target for Mercury Systems from $65.43 to $72.63. They cite improved revenue outlook and recent strong quarterly performance as key drivers for their increased optimism.Analysis Article • Sep 11
Subdued Growth No Barrier To Mercury Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRCY) With Shares Advancing 34%
Mercury Systems, Inc. ( NASDAQ:MRCY ) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 34% share price jump in the...Narrative Update • Sep 04
US And European Defense Trends Will Drive Transformation
Analysts highlight a Q4 earnings beat driven by a one-time revenue pull-forward and a surge in bookings, but maintain a conservative long-term outlook and reiterate their Buy stance, leaving the price target unchanged at $65.43. Analyst Commentary Q4 earnings significantly exceeded expectations due to a $30M revenue pull-forward.
New Narrative • Mar 22
Transition To Production Will Strengthen Competitive Edge In Defense Electronics
Increased production capacity and competitive wins, like the defense satellite program, position Mercury Systems for potential long-term revenue and market share growth.Seeking Alpha • Jan 16
Rugged Tech, Fragile Finances: Mercury's Fight For Stability
Summary Mercury Systems specializes in ruggedized electronics for defense contractors, focusing on integrating off-the-shelf components to withstand extreme environments. The company faces declining R&D investments, high inventory levels, and operational inefficiencies, leading to stalled revenues, reduced profitability, and volatile cash flow. Management is focusing on streamlining operations, reducing working capital, and shifting the product mix toward higher-margin production contracts. Mercury boasts a record $1.3 billion backlog and improving supply chain conditions, providing optimism for future free cash flow and margin expansion. While management projects recovery and growth in fiscal 2025, risks remain from potential supply chain disruptions, labor market instability, and operational execution. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 11
Mercury Systems Stock: Still A Hold After 25% Post-Earnings Surge
Summary Mercury Systems reported strong Q1 FY25 earnings, beating analyst estimates, leading to a 25% stock gain, and surpassing my previous $41.05 price target. Despite significant earnings improvement due to restructuring, Mercury Systems still faces challenges with margin recovery, revenue growth, and a $591.5 million credit facility that needs to be paid off. The company’s backlog signals product demand, but FY25 sales are expected to be flat with notable EBITDA and free cash flow improvements. Given the current price levels and financial uncertainties, I maintain a hold rating for Mercury Systems, seeing no compelling near-term upside. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Aug 15
Mercury Systems: Why Did The Stock Surge 17%?
Summary Mercury Systems stock surged 17% to $40 after fourth quarter results. MRCY focused on risk retirement in FY24, successfully addressing challenged programs. Expectations for enhanced margins and cash flow conversion in FY2025 and beyond, with potential for elevated returns due to risk profile. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • May 09
Mercury Systems: A Troubling Year Shows In The Earnings Results
Summary Mercury Systems' revenues declined 21% and margins were eroded, reflecting the challenges the company is facing. The main pain points for Mercury Systems are fixed price development programs and challenged programs, which are causing margin pressure. Despite progress in completing programs and retiring risk, the stock is overvalued and not a good investment opportunity at the moment. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEarnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/30/2028 | 1,148 | 44 | 130 | 164 | 6 |
| 6/30/2027 | 1,049 | 22 | 97 | 130 | 8 |
| 6/30/2026 | 957 | -26 | 66 | 103 | 5 |
| 3/27/2026 | 967 | -14 | 73 | 98 | N/A |
| 12/26/2025 | 943 | -30 | 99 | 122 | N/A |
| 9/26/2025 | 933 | -33 | 136 | 156 | N/A |
| 6/27/2025 | 912 | -38 | 119 | 139 | N/A |
| 3/28/2025 | 887 | -65 | 146 | 173 | N/A |
| 12/27/2024 | 884 | -90 | 97 | 125 | N/A |
| 9/27/2024 | 859 | -118 | 52 | 85 | N/A |
| 6/28/2024 | 835 | -138 | 26 | 60 | N/A |
| 3/29/2024 | 840 | -135 | -32 | 1 | N/A |
| 12/29/2023 | 895 | -85 | -18 | 16 | N/A |
| 9/29/2023 | 927 | -51 | -34 | 6 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 974 | -28 | -60 | -21 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 1,010 | -3 | -91 | -53 | N/A |
| 12/30/2022 | 1,000 | -4 | -89 | -54 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 991 | 4 | -113 | -83 | N/A |
| 7/1/2022 | 988 | 11 | -47 | -19 | N/A |
| 4/1/2022 | 949 | 12 | -3 | 28 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 953 | 24 | 21 | 55 | N/A |
| 10/1/2021 | 943 | 39 | 32 | 72 | N/A |
| 7/2/2021 | 924 | 62 | 52 | 97 | N/A |
| 4/2/2021 | 891 | 71 | 53 | 99 | N/A |
| 1/1/2021 | 842 | 79 | 59 | 106 | N/A |
| 10/2/2020 | 825 | 82 | 69 | 114 | N/A |
| 7/3/2020 | 797 | 86 | 72 | 115 | N/A |
| 3/27/2020 | 756 | 71 | 72 | 112 | N/A |
| 12/27/2019 | 723 | 62 | N/A | 109 | N/A |
| 9/27/2019 | 688 | 59 | N/A | 102 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 655 | 47 | N/A | 98 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 631 | 44 | N/A | 97 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 572 | 34 | N/A | 72 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 531 | 30 | N/A | 55 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 493 | 41 | N/A | 43 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 456 | 40 | N/A | 27 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 447 | 43 | N/A | 51 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 427 | 39 | N/A | 57 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 409 | 25 | N/A | 59 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 378 | 24 | N/A | 63 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 337 | 21 | N/A | 43 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 299 | 21 | N/A | 41 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 270 | 20 | N/A | 37 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 249 | 18 | N/A | 36 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 243 | 19 | N/A | 41 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 239 | 17 | N/A | 37 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 235 | 14 | N/A | 32 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: MRCY is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: MRCY is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.
High Growth Earnings: MRCY is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: MRCY's revenue (7.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.4% per year).
High Growth Revenue: MRCY's revenue (7.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: MRCY's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (5.2%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/07 04:16 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/07 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/27 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/06/27 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Mercury Systems, Inc. is covered by 15 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Peter Arment | Baird |
| Christopher Rieger | Berenberg |
| Austin Moeller | Canaccord Genuity |