Mercury Systems, Inc.

NasdaqGS:MRCY Stock Report

Market Cap: US$4.8b

Mercury Systems Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Mercury Systems is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 88.7% and 9.5% per annum respectively while EPS is expected to grow by 62.3% per annum.

Key information

88.7%

Earnings growth rate

62.30%

EPS growth rate

Aerospace & Defense earnings growth17.8%
Revenue growth rate9.5%
Future return on equityn/a
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated31 Aug 2026

Recent future growth updates

Analysis Article • Nov 07

The Mercury Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRCY) First-Quarter Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from Mercury Systems, Inc. ( NASDAQ:MRCY ), an important milestone...

Recent updates

Seeking Alpha • Sep 03

Mercury Systems: A Value Trap Crushed By The Gravity Of Subcontracting

Summary Mercury Systems represents a value trap rather than a viable turnaround, constrained by persistent capital inefficiency and limited pricing power under fixed-price contracts. MRCY's dependence on a few defense giants, exposure to fixed-price contracts, and lack of a competitive moat make it highly vulnerable to margin compression. The base case DCF model indicates a 69% downside to $26.92 per share, supporting a SELL rating. Chronic supply chain issues, MOSA standards, and customer concentration amplify execution risks and threaten long-term shareholder value. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Sep 03

MRCY: Record Backlog And AI Partnership Will Shape Future Repricing Potential

Analysts have raised the price target for Mercury Systems to $115.78 from $106.22, citing updated models that incorporate stronger revenue assumptions, a higher future P/E multiple near 79.7x, and recent Street research pointing to solid bookings, backlog, and an improved long-term revenue outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Mercury Systems points to a generally constructive view on the stock, with most firms revisiting their models after quarterly results and updated long term revenue outlooks.
Narrative Update • Aug 13

MRCY: Future Margin Execution And Record Defense Bookings Will Shape Repricing Potential

Analysts now frame Mercury Systems' fair value at about $106.22, up from roughly $101.50. They point to recent price target increases that highlight its long track record in defense electronics, record bookings, and expectations for firmer margins and earnings power.
Narrative Update • Jul 13

MRCY: Elevated Expectations And Execution Risks Will Limit Future Share Price Upside

Analysts have lifted the fair value estimate for Mercury Systems from $72.04 to $77.95 after updated models and higher price targets in recent research. This reflects adjusted expectations for revenue growth, margins, and future P/E multiples.
Narrative Update • Jun 14

MRCY: Future Margin Execution On Defense Bookings Will Limit Repricing Potential

Analysts have nudged the fair value estimate for Mercury Systems higher to $101.50 from $97.50, reflecting updated views on improving profit margins and booking trends that have supported recent increases in the Street price target, including Jefferies' move to $105. Analyst Commentary Recent research has focused on Mercury Systems' order trends and margin profile as key inputs into fair value estimates and price targets.
Narrative Update • May 31

MRCY: Contract Wins And Margin Gains Will Support Steadier Future Earnings Quality

Mercury Systems' analyst price targets have been raised by between $4 and $15, with analysts pointing to updated expectations for revenue growth, profitability, and a lower future P/E multiple as key drivers of the change. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Mercury Systems has centered on a series of price target revisions, with several bullish analysts lifting their targets by between US$4 and US$15, and one earlier cut of US$5 still in the mix.
Narrative Update • May 13

MRCY: Space Program Execution Risk Will Constrain Future Share Price Upside

Analysts have lifted their price target for Mercury Systems to $72.04 from $62.00, citing updated views on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions following recent Street research. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Mercury Systems has included several price target revisions, both upward and downward, which signal a wide range of views on how the stock is currently valued.
Narrative Update • Apr 29

MRCY: Execution Risk In Space Contracts Will Limit Upside Potential

Analysts have modestly adjusted their blended price target on Mercury Systems to reflect a mixed set of recent updates, with Jefferies trimming its view by a combined $15 while Truist, RBC Capital, and Canaccord issued increases of $7, $10, and $14 respectively, citing differing expectations around growth, margins, and future P/E assumptions. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Mercury Systems reflects a split view, with some firms lifting their price targets while others are trimming theirs.
Narrative Update • Apr 15

MRCY: Ongoing Execution Risk Will Constrain Defense Contract Upside

Mercury Systems' updated analyst price target shifted to $62 from about $64, as analysts adjusted their models for changes in projected growth, margins, discount rate and future P/E assumptions following a mix of recent target cuts and raises across the Street. Analyst Commentary Street research on Mercury Systems has been active, with a mix of higher and lower price targets reflecting different views on how much risk investors should price into the shares.
Narrative Update • Mar 31

MRCY: Space And Weapons Contracts Will Support Future Repricing Potential

Analysts have adjusted their Mercury Systems price targets in a mixed but generally constructive way, with several firms raising targets by $6 to $14 while one reduced its view by $10. These changes reflect updated expectations around defense demand, aircraft production and the importance of careful stock selection in higher valuation defense tech names.
Narrative Update • Mar 16

MRCY: Space And Strategic Weapons Contracts Will Drive Renewed Uptrend

Analysts have raised the implied fair value estimate for Mercury Systems to $97.50 from $86.00. This change reflects a series of recent Street price target revisions that indicate higher assumed revenue and profit margins, even though one firm reduced its target by $10.
Narrative Update • Mar 02

MRCY: Higher Margins And Defense Recapitalization Efforts Will Support Stronger Earnings Quality

Analysts have made modest adjustments to their price targets on Mercury Systems, with shifts such as Jefferies trimming its view by $10 while others raised theirs by $6 to $14. These changes reflect updated expectations around margins, growth and future P/E assumptions rather than a change to the $120 fair value in our framework.
Narrative Update • Feb 16

MRCY: Limited Defense Catalysts And Execution Risk Will Pressure Future Returns

Analysts have raised their blended price target for Mercury Systems from about $55 to roughly $63.70. They cite updated assumptions regarding revenue growth, profit margins, and a lower future P/E multiple, which reflect recent target changes from firms that have both increased and decreased their views on the stock.
Narrative Update • Feb 02

MRCY: Elevated Sector Pricing And One Off Revenue Timing Will Pressure Returns

Analysts raised their price target on Mercury Systems by about $2.50, supported by slightly higher fair value estimates, a modestly lower discount rate, and small upward adjustments to revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, while keeping future P/E expectations broadly stable. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Mercury Systems highlights a mix of optimism around fair value and caution around how that value might be realized.
Narrative Update • Jan 19

MRCY: Higher Margins And Space Contracts Will Support Stronger Earnings Quality

Narrative Update Analysts have raised their implied fair value range for Mercury Systems from about $80 to roughly $120 per share, citing higher modeled revenue, improved profit margins, and sector research indicating supportive demand trends in aerospace and defense. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are nudging their expectations higher for Mercury Systems, with recent price target revisions pointing to increased confidence in both execution and earnings quality.
Analysis Article • Jan 14

Mercury Systems, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:MRCY) 33% Price Boost Is Out Of Tune With Revenues

Mercury Systems, Inc. ( NASDAQ:MRCY ) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 33% share price jump in the...
Narrative Update • Jan 05

MRCY: Accelerated High Margin Revenue Will Likely Inflate Near Term Expectations

Analysts have raised their price targets on Mercury Systems to a range of US$95 to US$100, citing Q3 results that benefited from about US$20m of accelerated, high margin revenue, a 1.1x book to bill, minimal perceived shutdown risk, and solid demand trends across aircraft production and aftermarket activity. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Mercury Systems has focused on the quality of Q3 earnings, the sustainability of current margins, and how exposed the business might be to macro and government related risks.
Narrative Update • Dec 15

MRCY: Elevated Expectations Around Accelerated Revenue Will Likely Pressure Shares

Analysts have raised their price target on Mercury Systems significantly, from about $40 to roughly $53 per share. They cite stronger than expected Q3 execution, higher margin contributions from accelerated revenue, and improving aerospace and defense demand that supports higher growth and profitability assumptions.
Narrative Update • Nov 30

MRCY: Share Repurchase And Q3 Strength Will Drive Renewed Uptrend

Analysts have raised their average price target for Mercury Systems. Recent updates reflect an increase from $71 to a range up to $100 per share.
Narrative Update • Nov 16

MRCY: Future Demand Strength In Defense And Aerospace Will Drive Share Gains

Mercury Systems’ analyst price target has increased significantly from $81.13 to $86.00. Analysts point to recent operational outperformance, improved profit margins, and positive demand trends as supporting factors for the higher valuation.
Analysis Article • Nov 07

The Mercury Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRCY) First-Quarter Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

Last week saw the newest quarterly earnings release from Mercury Systems, Inc. ( NASDAQ:MRCY ), an important milestone...
Narrative Update • Nov 01

MRCY: Future Demand From Aerospace And Defense Will Shape Fair Outlook

Analysts have raised their price target for Mercury Systems from $77.50 to $81.13, citing improving sentiment in the aerospace and defense sector, increased aftermarket demand, and model updates that reflect continued operational progress. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst research has highlighted both optimism and caution regarding Mercury Systems' near-term performance and long-term prospects.
Narrative Update • Oct 17

US And European Defense Trends Will Drive Transformation

Analysts have raised their price target for Mercury Systems significantly, increasing it from $72.63 to $77.50. They cite improved revenue stability, higher profit margin forecasts, and continued industry optimism surrounding aerospace and defense suppliers.
Narrative Update • Oct 03

US And European Defense Trends Will Drive Transformation

Analysts have raised their price target for Mercury Systems from $65.43 to $72.63. They cite improved revenue outlook and recent strong quarterly performance as key drivers for their increased optimism.
Narrative Update • Sep 04

US And European Defense Trends Will Drive Transformation

Analysts highlight a Q4 earnings beat driven by a one-time revenue pull-forward and a surge in bookings, but maintain a conservative long-term outlook and reiterate their Buy stance, leaving the price target unchanged at $65.43. Analyst Commentary Q4 earnings significantly exceeded expectations due to a $30M revenue pull-forward.
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New Narrative • Mar 22

Transition To Production Will Strengthen Competitive Edge In Defense Electronics

Increased production capacity and competitive wins, like the defense satellite program, position Mercury Systems for potential long-term revenue and market share growth.
Seeking Alpha • Jan 16

Rugged Tech, Fragile Finances: Mercury's Fight For Stability

Summary Mercury Systems specializes in ruggedized electronics for defense contractors, focusing on integrating off-the-shelf components to withstand extreme environments. The company faces declining R&D investments, high inventory levels, and operational inefficiencies, leading to stalled revenues, reduced profitability, and volatile cash flow. Management is focusing on streamlining operations, reducing working capital, and shifting the product mix toward higher-margin production contracts. Mercury boasts a record $1.3 billion backlog and improving supply chain conditions, providing optimism for future free cash flow and margin expansion. While management projects recovery and growth in fiscal 2025, risks remain from potential supply chain disruptions, labor market instability, and operational execution. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 11

Mercury Systems Stock: Still A Hold After 25% Post-Earnings Surge

Summary Mercury Systems reported strong Q1 FY25 earnings, beating analyst estimates, leading to a 25% stock gain, and surpassing my previous $41.05 price target. Despite significant earnings improvement due to restructuring, Mercury Systems still faces challenges with margin recovery, revenue growth, and a $591.5 million credit facility that needs to be paid off. The company’s backlog signals product demand, but FY25 sales are expected to be flat with notable EBITDA and free cash flow improvements. Given the current price levels and financial uncertainties, I maintain a hold rating for Mercury Systems, seeing no compelling near-term upside. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqGS:MRCY - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
6/30/20291,31370N/AN/A2
6/30/20281,206581211589
6/30/20271,085246810310
7/3/2026984-3068102N/A
3/27/2026967-147398N/A
12/26/2025943-3099122N/A
9/26/2025933-33136156N/A
6/27/2025912-38119139N/A
3/28/2025887-65146173N/A
12/27/2024884-9097125N/A
9/27/2024859-1185285N/A
6/28/2024835-1382660N/A
3/29/2024840-135-321N/A
12/29/2023895-85-1816N/A
9/29/2023927-51-346N/A
6/30/2023974-28-60-21N/A
3/31/20231,010-3-91-53N/A
12/30/20221,000-4-89-54N/A
9/30/20229914-113-83N/A
7/1/202298811-47-19N/A
4/1/202294912-328N/A
12/31/2021953242155N/A
10/1/2021943393272N/A
7/2/2021924625297N/A
4/2/2021891715399N/A
1/1/20218427959106N/A
10/2/20208258269114N/A
7/3/20207978672115N/A
3/27/202075671N/A112N/A
12/27/201972362N/A109N/A
9/27/201968859N/A102N/A
6/30/201965547N/A98N/A
3/31/201963144N/A97N/A
12/31/201857234N/A72N/A
9/30/201853130N/A55N/A
6/30/201849341N/A43N/A
3/31/201845640N/A27N/A
12/31/201744743N/A51N/A
9/30/201742739N/A57N/A
6/30/201740925N/A59N/A
3/31/201737824N/A63N/A
12/31/201633721N/A43N/A
9/30/201629921N/A41N/A
6/30/201627020N/A37N/A
3/31/201624918N/A36N/A
12/31/201524319N/A41N/A
9/30/201523917N/A37N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MRCY is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (3.7%).

Earnings vs Market: MRCY is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: MRCY is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: MRCY's revenue (9.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (13.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MRCY's revenue (9.5% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if MRCY's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/09/13 06:00
End of Day Share Price 2026/09/11 00:00
Earnings2026/07/03
Annual Earnings2026/07/03

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Mercury Systems, Inc. is covered by 16 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Peter ArmentBaird
Christopher RiegerBerenberg
Austin MoellerCanaccord Genuity