Intuitive Machines (LUNR) Is Down 6.9% After Securing US$8.2 Million Air Force Nuclear Power Contract Extension - What's Changed

• Intuitive Machines announced in late October that it secured an US$8.2 million contract extension from the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory to accelerate development of compact nuclear power systems for spacecraft and lunar infrastructure.
• This award fast-tracks preparation of Stirling-based nuclear power technology for flight demonstration on the International Space Station, supporting longer-duration missions in harsh lunar and deep space environments where solar energy falls short.
• We’ll examine how this new contract extension supports Intuitive Machines’ move into advanced space power technology and affects its long-term investment case.

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Intuitive Machines Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder of Intuitive Machines, you have to believe in a future where commercial and government investment in lunar and deep space missions will translate into substantial long-term revenue through advanced infrastructure services. The latest US$8.2 million nuclear power contract is a milestone for technology adoption, but it does not directly address the company’s immediate financial risks, particularly its dependence on large government awards and ongoing unprofitability, that remain the most important short-term factors for the stock.

Among recent announcements, the US$9.8 million Orbital Transfer Vehicle (OTV) contract in July stands out for portfolio diversification. This award relates closely to Intuitive Machines’ emphasis on in-space mobility, a demand area amplified by advances like the Stirling nuclear power system, and may contribute to reducing reliance on single-mission revenue events over time.

But in contrast to the opportunity of lunar energy breakthroughs, investors should also be aware of the inherent risk if key government contracts are delayed or reprioritized...

Read the full narrative on Intuitive Machines (it's free!)

Intuitive Machines is projected to reach $502.2 million in revenue and $41.2 million in earnings by 2028. This outlook depends on a 30.5% annual revenue growth rate and a $283 million increase in earnings from the current level of -$241.8 million.

Uncover how Intuitive Machines' forecasts yield a $15.43 fair value, a 29% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Twenty-seven fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from US$5.69 to US$58.79, reflecting sharply different forecasts for Intuitive Machines’ prospects. While views are split, the company’s reliance on lumpy government contract awards remains a crucial factor shaping outcomes for everyone tracking this stock’s future.

Explore 27 other fair value estimates on Intuitive Machines - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Intuitive Machines Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Intuitive Machines research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Intuitive Machines research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Intuitive Machines' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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