Blue Bird (BLBD): Assessing Valuation Following Strong Earnings Growth and 2026 Outlook Reaffirmation

Blue Bird (BLBD) has posted earnings that highlight growth on multiple fronts. The company’s fourth quarter and full-year numbers reflect higher sales and improved net income. Management also reaffirmed its revenue outlook for next year.

See our latest analysis for Blue Bird.

Blue Bird’s run of solid financial results has kept momentum strong, with the stock delivering a year-to-date share price return of over 30% and a total shareholder return of 21% over the past year. While the share price dipped 3.2% just after earnings, longer-term gains suggest that investors view the latest numbers and guidance as another sign of durable growth.

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With shares up strongly this year and Blue Bird trading at a tangible discount to analyst price targets, the key question now is whether the stock’s solid fundamentals are still underappreciated by the market or if all that future growth is already reflected in the price.

Most Popular Narrative: 19% Undervalued

Blue Bird’s widely followed narrative suggests a fair value comfortably above the latest closing price, fueling ongoing debate over what is driving the company’s perceived discount.

Advances in Blue Bird's operational efficiency, including automation and lean manufacturing investments, as well as the construction of a new plant, are anticipated to improve cost structures and drive sustainable margin improvement and expanded net earnings over time.

Read the complete narrative.

There is more to this valuation than meets the eye. The narrative’s fair value is built from bold assumptions about future earnings growth, expanding profit margins, and industry-beating multiples. What key numbers are powering this outlook, and how do they stack up against market benchmarks? See the details that set this narrative apart from the rest.

Result: Fair Value of $62.38 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, there are still risks, such as potential cuts to government incentives or supply chain disruptions, that could quickly alter Blue Bird's outlook and share price trajectory.

Find out about the key risks to this Blue Bird narrative.

Build Your Own Blue Bird Narrative

If you have a different perspective or want to dig into the details yourself, you can craft your own analysis in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Blue Bird.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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